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Intrade 2.0 is currently under development…

January, 2014

Today’s society moves fast. Technological advances in social connectivity, of increased computer processing power, and of human productivity and awareness create a NEW NEED for reliable and objective ways to measure the likelihood of potential future outcomes of all of the things that happen around us, and that may even happen to us.

Intrade 2.0: Collating the “Wisdom of the Crowd” via Prediction Markets.

Prediction Markets are not new. They have been noted at least as far back as 1906 by Sir Francis Galton, a statistician and thinker who recorded his observations about a contest where the crowd would guess – for money – the weight of an ox after slaughter. Prediction Markets via the internet first came on the scene in the late 1980’s and remain relevant today.

Intrade.com data was featured by mainstream media publishers in 2008 and 2012 related to the US Presidential Elections. A quick Google search on “intrade 2012 election” yields more than 1,500,000 results!

Intrade 2012 Visitor Data (Google Analytics):

Month # Unique
Visitors
# Visits # Pages
Viewed
Pages per
Visit
September 2012 585,000 1,900,000 4,700,000 2.47
October 2012 1,500,000 5,300,000 50,000,000 9.43
November 2012 1,000,000 2,800,000 56,000,000 20.00
December 2012 102,000 210,000 3,200,000 15.24

Regulatory guidelines in the US now restrict the trading of “Event Futures” for real money (considered “swaps” by the CFTC). This has dampened prediction market development (including even politics) which use real money and are now a barrier to participation for many who expressed interest in participating but had no interest in confronting a regulatory haze.

Why Intrade 2.0 Now?

Because regulatory burdens have caused a supply shortage of DATA in response to the demand for valid and accessible “Wisdom of Crowds”.

Prediction Markets still have tremendous academic support. Legal impediments may prevent cold hard cash from being the “carrot”, but there is evidence that other motivators may suffice.

No one has stepped in to fill the void left by Intrade’s closure of real money prediction markets in March of 2013. By exploring non-financial motivations and leveraging new journalism and social media, Intrade 2.0 will provide a new angle of approach.

For more information about Intrade 2.0, please contact us.

Note: Intrade Customers can access their account information by logging in as usual. If you have any questions related to your Intrade account, please contact Account Services.

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