Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Intrade has listed a market for the outcome of Elena Kagan's confirmation to the United States Supreme Court.
This market can be found under Legal > Supreme Court.
The market will be expired once one of the following happens:
Senate Vote:
If the nomination goes to a confirmation vote in the Senate the market will be expired according to how many votes Elena Kagan receives (this applies to a final up-or-down conformation vote only and not any procedural votes required to advance the confirmation).
A contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if Kagan receives the number of votes (or more) specified in the contract.
A contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if Kagan receives less than the number of votes specified in the contract.
If the nomination goes to a vote in the Senate the KAGAN.WITHDRAW and KAGAN.RECESS contracts will both expire at 0.
Withdrawal of Nomination:
If the nomination is withdrawn before a confirmation vote occurs then the KAGAN.WITHDRAW contract will expire at 100 and all other contracts at 0.
Recess Appointment:
If Kagan is appointed to the Supreme Court as a recess appointment then the KAGAN.RECESS contract will expire at 100 and all other contracts at 0.
Expiry will be based on the official outcome of the confirmation process, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources.
These contracts do not cover the death of the person named in the contract. In the event of the named person's death before expiry the contract will be unwound, all trades reversed and all trading fees refunded.