New Prediction Market: Further US troops in Afghanistan?

Tuesday, Sep 22, 2009

Intrade has opened a market on the possibility of the United States sending at least 10,000 more troops to Afghanistan.

This market can be found under Current Events -- Afghanistan.

Contract Rules:

This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if it is officially announced before midnight ET on the date specified in the contract that 10,000 (or more) additional US troops will be deployed in Afghanistan.

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if it is NOT officially announced before midnight ET on the date specified in the contract that 10,000 (or more) additional US troops will be deployed in Afghanistan.

Expiry will be based on official public announcements from the US Government, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources. This will include (but is not limited to) announcements from President Obama, White House spokespersons or the US Department of Defense.

Any announcement must confirm official US policy regarding the deployment of further troops. For expiry purposes it does not matter which of the armed services the troops belong to.

Any deployment must provide additional numbers to the troops already serving in Afghanistan. A rotation of new troops with those already serving in Afghanistan will not be considered for expiry purposes.

The troops do not need to be actually deployed for the contract to expire. The contract will be expired when an appropriate announcement has been made or if no such announcement is made before midnight ET on the date specified in the contract. Any subsequent change in policy or announcement concerning the announced deployment will not affect the original expiry.

Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.7 Unforeseen Circumstances.

The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Exchange Rule 1.4

Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

 

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