Tuesday, Oct 7, 2008
Intrade has opned a market on the United States economy going into a depression in 2009. This market can be found under Financials -- Economic Numbers -- US Economy in Depression.
Contract Rules:
This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if quarterly GDP figures show the US economy has gone into a depression in 2009.
The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if quarterly GDP figures DO NOT show the US economy has gone into a depression in 2009.
For expiry purposes a depression is defined as a cumulative decline in GDP of more than 10.0% over four consecutive quarters.
Expiry will be based on official quarterly GDP figures reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table 1.1.1, "Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product") as reported by the BEA.
The final quarterly GDP figures will be used for expiry - not the advance or preliminary numbers. Any revision of the final figures will not not affect the original expiry.
Negative quarters in the preceding year will count towards the total GDP decline for expiration purposes. For example, if the total decline in GDP from Q3 2008 to Q2 2009 exceeds 10.0% then the contract will expire at 100.
Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.7 Unforeseen Circumstances.
The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.
Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Exchange Rule 1.4
Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.