Wednesday, Jun 25, 2008
Intrade has listed a market for the Irish economy to go into recession. This market can be found under Financial -- Economic Numbers -- Irish Economy in Recession.
Contract Rules:
A contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the Irish economy goes into recession during the year specified in the contract.
A contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if the Irish economy DOES NOT go into recession during the year specified in the contract.
For expiry purposes, a recession is defined as two successive quarters of negative real GDP growth.
Expiry will be based on the data reported by the Economic and Social Research Institute (detailed in their Quarterly Economic Commentaries - as detailed HERE).
If the reported data indicates that any two consecutive quarters between (and including) Q4 of the previous year and Q4 of the year specified in the contract are negative, then the contract will expire at 100. Otherwise, the contract will expire at 0. For example, if Q4 of 2007 and Q1 of 2008 both experience negative growth then the contract for 2008 will expire at 100.
Final figures will be used for expiry - not advance or preliminary numbers.
Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.7 Unforeseen Circumstances.
The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.
Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Exchange Rule 1.4
Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.