Intrade Exchange News

New Prediction Market: Cancellation of Khalid S. Mohammed civilian trial

Intrade — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 06:33:36 GMT

On November 13th 2009 the Obama administration announced it would prosecute Khalid Shaikh Mohammed in federal court in New York. Intrade has listed a market for the cancellation of the proposed civilian trial. This market can be found under Legal -- Khalid S. Mohammed

New Prediction Market: US State Government Default

Intrade — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 03:42:03 GMT

Could a state government reach the point where it cannot meet it's financial obligations? Intrade yesterday listed markets on New York, New Jersey and California experiencing a "credit event" in relation to their bond issues, such as bankruptcy, default or failure to pay. These markets can be found under Financial -- US State Gov Default.

2010 US Primary Contests

Intrade — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 10:39:28 GMT

Looking ahead to the 2010 midterm elections, where a number of Senate seats and Governorships will be up for grabs, Intrade has listed a new category: 2010 US Primaries. This can be found under the Politics category and will contain markets for various primary contests taking place in 2010 to select party candidates for Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If you have a suggestion for an interesting primary contest then we would like to hear it. Please email your suggestions to help@intrade.com.

New Prediction Market: Special Election - NY 23rd District

Intrade — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 09:58:33 GMT

On November 3rd 2009 a special election will be held in New York's 23rd congressional district to elect a replacement for Rep. John McHugh, who has resigned from office to become Secretary of the Army. Intrade has listed a market on the outcome of this election under Politics -- US Congress.

New Prediction Market: Date of Next Irish General Election

Intrade — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 09:54:54 GMT

Intrade has opened a market on the date of the next Irish general election, which must be held before 14th July 2012. It is possible however, that an early election could be held if the current government collapses or the opposition can force an early election. This market can be found under Politics -- Irish Politics.

New Prediction Market: Twitter IPO

Intrade — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 09:41:14 GMT

Intrade has listed a market on the prospect of Twitter announcing an IPO. This market can be found under Financial -- Company IPOs.

New Prediction Market: Don't Ask, Don't Tell

Intrade — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 01:05:24 GMT

Intrade has opened a market on a repeal of the Don't Ask, Don't Tell policy regarding gays and lesbians serving in the US military. This market can be found under Politics -- Obama Administration.

New Prediction Market: Will Hillary Clinton depart as Secretary of State?

Intrade — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 01:52:36 GMT

Intrade has listed a market on the possible departure of Hillary Clinton from her current position as US Secretary of State before the end of President Obama's first term in office. This market can be found under Politics -- Obama Administration.

Intrade Market Wrap Video

Intrade — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 01:36:48 GMT

The latest Intrade Market Video Wrap is now available for your viewing pleasure.

New Prediction Market: New York City Snowfall

Intrade — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 10:17:48 GMT

Intrade has opened a market on the number inches of snowfall in Central Park, New York City, between 1st November 2009 and April 30th 2010. This market can be found under Climate and Weather -- NY City Snowfall. We will also be listing monthly markets for the number of inches of snowfall for the current month. The market for November is already open under Climate and Weather -- NY City Snowfall. Please ensure you read all contract rules carefully before you make a trade, and please contact us at help@intrade.com if you have any questions.

New Prediction Market: Will Roman Polanski be extradited?

Intrade — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 02:16:28 GMT

Intrade has opened a market on whether or not Roman Polanski be extradited to the United States. This market can be found under Legal -- Roman Polanski.

New Prediction Market: Israeli Settlement Freeze

Intrade — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 02:48:02 GMT

Intrade has listed a market on the Israeli's announcing they will freeze all settlement construction in the West Bank. This market can be found under Current Events -- Middle East.

New Prediction Market: New air tankers for the US Air Force

Intrade — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 09:47:36 GMT

The US Air Force is looking to buy $40 billion of aerial refuelling tankers. Intrade has listed a market for who will be awarded contract to supply the Air Force with these aircraft. This market can be found under Business -- Defense Contracts.

New Prediction Market: Guantanamo Bay

Intrade — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 09:46:37 GMT

Intrade has listed a market on the last prisoner (or prisoners) being released or transferred out of the Guantanamo Bay detention camp before the end of this year. This market can be found under Current Events -- Guantanamo.

New Prediction Market: Republican pick-ups in the House in 2010

Intrade — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 09:14:09 GMT

Intrade has listed a market for the number of seats gained by the Republicans in the House of Representatives in the 2010 mid-term elections. This market can be found under Politics -- 2010 US Midterms

New Prediction Market: Further US troops in Afghanistan?

Intrade — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 03:25:35 GMT

Intrade has opened a market on the possibility of the United States sending at least 10,000 more troops to Afghanistan. This market can be found under Current Events -- Afghanistan.

New Prediction Market: Winner of Best Picture

Intrade — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 10:47:09 GMT

Intrade has opened a market on the winner of the Oscar for best picture at the 82nd Academy Awards. This market can be found under Entertainment -- Academy Awards.

Intrade Confidential Survey Results - Now Public

Intrade — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 09:14:27 GMT

Intrade Confidential Survey Results are Now Public Dublin, Ireland, September 11th, 2009 Intrade is currently running a survey from its homepage. We are making the results* of our survey transparent and public. We are doing this as we believe providing open access to this information is in the best interests of our members, our business, the industry, our competitors, supporters and even our rare ;-) symbiotic detractors. Should you like to discuss or collaborate on this or related surveys please contact me directly at john.delaney@intrade.com. Additional details here... http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/misc/blog/#jd_25 Regards, John Delaney CEO Intrade

New Prediction Market: Charles Rangel to depart as Chairman of Ways & Means

Intrade — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 08:17:49 GMT

Intrade has listed a market on the possible departure of Charles Rangel as Chairman of House Ways and Means Committee. This market can be found under Politics -- US Congress.

New Customer Service Phone Number

Intrade — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 12:39:50 GMT

We have a new customer service telephone number that is in use from today: If calling from the US: 0011-353-1-6854363 If calling from elsewhere: +353-1-6854363 Please note that this is not a toll-free number, it is an internationl call to Ireland that will be charged at your local rate. You can reach us from 1:30PM to 9:30PM Dublin Time (8:30am - 4:30pm ET), Monday to Friday. Please note that no orders may be entered or cancelled by Intrade Representatives. If you leave a voice message please include your full name, Intrade account number or username and email address. Our previous telephone number is no longer is use.

New Prediction Market: Canadian General Election

Intrade — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 09:48:24 GMT

Intrade has opened two markets on the next Canadian general election: - When will the next general election be held? - Which party will win the most seats in the next general election? Both markets can be found under Politics -- Canadian Politics.

New Prediction Market: Massachusetts Special Election

Intrade — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 01:29:30 GMT

Intrade now opened a series of markets concerning the vacant Senate seat in Massachusetts: * An interim appointment to te vacant seat * Winner of the special election in January * Democratic nominee for the special election * Republican nominee for the special election These can all be found under Politics -- MA Special Election.

New Prediction Market: Will the CIA be charged for abuse of detainees?

Intrade — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 11:46:50 GMT

Intrade has opened a market on the possibility of charges or indictments against CIA employees in connection with the abuse of detainees. This market can be found under Legal -- CIA Detainee Abuses.

New Prediction Market: Cheney and Gonzales to be charged?

Intrade — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 11:45:02 GMT

Intrade has opened markets on the possibility of Dick Cheney and Alberto Gonzales being charged or indicted for federal offences committed during their tenures in the Bush Administration. Both markets can be found under Legal -- Bush Administration.

New Prediction Market: Bernanke confirmed for a second term?

Intrade — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 11:45:46 GMT

Intrade has opened a market on the confirmation of Ben Bernanke for a second term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. This market can be found under Financial -- Fed Chairman.

Will Rudy Giuliani announce a run for Governor of New York?

Intrade — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 10:34:13 GMT

Intrade has listed a market on the prospect of former Mayor of New York City and Republican Presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani announcing a run for Governor of New York in 2010. This market can be found under Politics -- 2010 US Gov. Races.

Next US Supreme Court Justice to Depart Bench

Intrade — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 09:42:34 GMT

Intrade has listed a market for which Justice will be the next to depart the United States Supreme Court.This market can be found under Legal -- Supreme Court.

Atlantic Hurricane Season - Individual Hurricanes

Intrade — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 01:06:28 GMT

We have now begun listing markets on the landfall of individual hurricanes in the United States. These markets can be found under Climate & Weather - Individual Hurricanes. At present we have markets on Ana and Bill. Further markets will be added as storms develop and threaten the United States coastline.

Dancing with the Stars

Intrade — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 01:35:37 GMT

Intrade has now opened a market on the winner of this seasons Dancing with the Stars, airing on ABC. This market can be found under Entertainment -- Dancing with the Stars.

Intrade Market Wrap Video - Episode 3

Intrade — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 10:04:13 GMT

Episode 3 of the Intrade Market Video Wrap is now available for your viewing pleasure. The video can be watched here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-VEcCqmziQ

Democratic Nominee for 2010 Pennsylvania Senate Race

Intrade — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 10:31:23 GMT

We have listed a market on what promises to be a very interesting (and most likely, bitter) race for the Democratic nomination for the Pennsylvania Senate race in 2010. This market can be found under Politics -- 2010 US Senate Races (just beneath the market for Pennsylvania Senate race).

Will Barack Obama depart as President of the United States?

Intrade — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 01:50:24 GMT

We have opened a new market on the departure of Barack Obama from his current position as President of the United States. This market can be found under Politics -- Obama Administration.

2009 New York City Mayoral Election

Intrade — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 11:04:30 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for the winner of this years New York City Mayoral election, scheduled for 23rd October. This market can be found under Politics -- New York City.

When will the Boeing 787 make its maiden flight?

Intrade — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 10:20:23 GMT

We have listed a market on when the much anticipated and much-delayed Boeing 787 airliner will take it's maiden flight. This market can be found under Transportation -- Boeing 787.

Market Volatility Report Just Launched

Intrade — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 09:51:07 GMT

We have just pushed a new report live this morning. You can access this report by clicking on the link from the homepage called "Market Data Reports - New". The first report in this new section is called the "Contract Volatility" report. This report shows the most volatile* markets during the last trading session. We hope that this report allows you focus on markets that may offer good trading or discussion opportunities due to their volatile nature. We will be adding more reports to this section soon. Please let me have your suggestions for any specific reports you would like to see.

Trade Alerts on Twitter

Intrade — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 09:16:06 GMT

We are now posting real-time trades to Twitter using Twitter username "IntradeTrades". General Intrade updates are being posted on Twitter using the Twitter username "Intrade" and "JDelaneyIntrade". We intend to provide for customizable Trade Alerts by email in the near future. Appreciate your comments to john.delaney@intrade.com

Will a Majority Vote Yes in 2009 Irish Referendum on Lisbon Treaty?

Intrade — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 03:49:35 GMT

Intrade has listed a new market for will a majority Vote Yes in 2009 Irish Referendum on Lisbon Treaty? This market can be found under Current Events -- Lisbon Treaty.

US Congress to approve another Economic Stimulus Plan

Intrade — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 03:32:19 GMT

Intrade has listed a new market for the US Congress to approve another Economic Stimulus Plan. This market can be found under Financial -- US Stimulas Plan

Real Time Trade Alerts - Should be Published?

Intrade — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 03:56:18 GMT

We already have much of the technology developed to publish via email, Twitter etc instant real-time notifications of matched trades on Intrade. The notification would be short like the example below but would inform those interested of activity on Intrade. Before we develop this I would appreciate you?re your input as to whether you would value this information / transparency.

Temporary Removal of Blogs from our Homepage

Intrade — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 08:04:22 GMT

We have recently upgraded some of our homepage coding but have yet to make it compatible with "our" blogs. As a result our blogs will not appear on the homepage for the present but rest assured they will return soon.

US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

Intrade — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:55:48 GMT

We have opened a market for 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates in the United States at the end of 2009. This market can be found under Financial -- Mortgage Rates.

Will Mark Sanford depart as Governor of South Carolina?

Intrade — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 07:31:44 GMT

We have listed a new market on the departure of Mark Sanford, the Governor of South Carolina who recently went AWOL in South America. This market can be found under Politics -- Mark Sanford.

Will a federal government run health insurance plan be approved in the US?

Intrade — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 02:43:46 GMT

Intrade has opened a market on a federal government health insurance plan being approved in the United States. This market can be found under Current Events -- Health Care Reform

Will Japan announce they have acquired nuclear weapons?

Intrade — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 09:41:42 GMT

Intrade has opened a market on the announcement by Japan that they have acquired nuclear weapons. This market can be found under Current Events -- Japan.

Will North Korea be added to the State Sponsors of Terrorism List?

Intrade — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 01:35:50 GMT

We have listed a market on North Korea being added to the State Sponsors of Terrorism List. This market can be found under Current Events -- Sponsors of Terror.

Google Search Engine Market Share

Intrade — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 10:55:07 GMT

We have opened a market on the search engine market share of Google. This market can be found under Technologies -- Search Engines.

The Lights At The End Of The Tunnel, A Juggernaut Heading For Us?

Intrade — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 03:13:46 GMT

The bottoming out of consumer confidence indices in the US, Germany, Japan and elsewhere suggests we are near the trough of this recession. Presenting a case that we are at or very near the trough now may inflict a sucker punch to a soft underbelly if in fact the recession is far from over. Something that I believe is actually the case.

Will the United States AAA credit rating be downgraded or put on negative outlook?

Intrade — Mon, 25 May 2009 02:09:35 GMT

Intrade has opened a market on the prospect of the United States' AAA credit rating being downgraded or placed on negative outlook.

Intrade in the Press

Intrade — Thu, 21 May 2009 08:22:58 GMT

Intrade received a number of mentions in the global press over the last week. Here are some of the stories...

US Unemployment Insurance Initial Claims

Intrade — Tue, 19 May 2009 09:20:59 GMT

We have begun listing a weekly market on US Unemployment Insurance Initial Claims (usually just referred to as Initial Claims).

Will James Jones depart as National Security Advisor?

Intrade — Tue, 19 May 2009 09:17:26 GMT

Intrade has listed a new market on the departure of James Jones from his position as National Security Advisor.

Will Space Shuttle Endeavour launch before the end of May 2009?

Intrade — Thu, 14 May 2009 02:16:11 GMT

We have opened a market on the possibilty of Space Shuttle Endeavour being launched by the end of this month.

Will Nancy Pelosi depart as Speaker of the House of Representatives?

Intrade — Thu, 14 May 2009 02:08:01 GMT

We have listed a contract on the departure of Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the US House of Representatives.

Climate Change Prediction: Al Gore versus Prof. Scott Armstrong

Intrade — Thu, 14 May 2009 11:45:12 GMT

Intrade, in association with TheClimateBet.com, are pleased to announce a new market listed in our Climate and Weather trading category: Climate Change Prediction: Al Gore versus Prof. Scott Armstrong.

Box Office Returns: Change in Market Rules

Intrade — Wed, 13 May 2009 10:45:35 GMT

We have updated the rules covering the expiry of our weekly box office returns markets. We have previously used the box office figures published by Nielson EDI to expire the weekly markets. Beginning this weekend (with the market listed for Friday May 15th releases) we will be using the figures published by Box Office Mojo to expire the market. No other significant changes have been made to the rules.

Sneak Preview: Intrade.com Is Changing

Intrade — Fri, 08 May 2009 03:12:54 GMT

We have been working on a new version of Intrade.com for some time which will also include the launch of new services. More will follow on the new services soon. We have listened to your comments and have incorporated as many of your suggestions as possible. Please keep your comments and suggestions coming to me at john.delaney@intrade.com

Announcing the Intrade Virtual Internships

Intrade — Thu, 07 May 2009 11:05:24 GMT

Who wants to be an Intrade Virtual Intern? If you're one of our Virtual Interns, we will work actively together to agree a project or projects that you will contribute to and both of us will benefit from.

Will Euna Lee and Laura Ling be released by North Korea?

Intrade — Wed, 06 May 2009 02:36:20 GMT

We have opened a market for the release of Euna Lee and Laura Ling - two American journalists detained by North Korean soldiers along the China-North Korea border in March 2009. North Korean authorities have indicated they will be put on trial for illegal entry and "hostile acts".

2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Intrade — Wed, 06 May 2009 09:52:34 GMT

Markets for the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season have now been opened. Two markets have been listed: the last named storm of the season, and the first US landfall of a cat 3 (or higher storm) to be in a particular state.

The European Union Unemployment Rate

Intrade — Tue, 05 May 2009 03:33:03 GMT

We have just opened markets for the unemployment rate of the European Union (EU) at the end of 2009 and 2010.

Will the Freedom to Travel to Cuba Act become law?

Intrade — Fri, 01 May 2009 02:24:40 GMT

We have listed a new market on the passage of the Freedom to Travel to Cuba Act into law. This market can be found under Current Events -- Cuba.

Will Verizon begin selling the Apple iPhone?

Intrade — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 03:21:50 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for Verizon to announce it will begin selling the Apple iPhone.

How many cases of the A/H1N1 Swine Flu will be confirmed in the United States?

Intrade — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 03:24:38 GMT

Intrade has now listed a market on how cases of the A/H1N1 Swine Flu will be confirmed in the United States.

Intrade Announces Fine Art Market Contracts

Intrade — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 03:23:37 GMT

Intrade the Prediction Market is pleased to announce an agreement with Beautiful Asset Advisors® LLC to create new binary futures markets for trading the global fine art market.

Will the US introduce a federal Value Added, Goods and Service or Sales Tax?

Intrade — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 03:28:36 GMT

Intrade has listed a maket on the possibility of the United States introducing a federal Value Added Tax, Goods and Services Tax or Sales Tax.

Will an Assault Weapons Ban be reinstated in the United States?

Intrade — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 03:29:28 GMT

Intrade has listed a market on the possibility of an Assault Weapons Ban being reinstated in the United States.

Repayment of funds received under the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP)

Intrade — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 03:46:33 GMT

Intrade has listed a market on the repayment by various financial institutions of funds received under the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP).

Will President Obama visit Cuba, Iran, Syria or North Korea?

Intrade — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 03:30:17 GMT

Intrade has listed a market on the possibility of President Obama visiting Cuba, Iran, Syria or North Korea before the ned of his first term in office.

Is Rod Blagojevich guilty of Corruption?

Intrade — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 03:32:35 GMT

Intrade has opened a market on Rod Blagojevich to plead guilty to, or be found guilty of corruption.

A Cap and Trade system for the US?

Intrade — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 03:34:07 GMT

Intrade has now listed a market for a cap and trade system for carbon emmission trading to be estbalished in the United States.

New Trading Category: Construction and Engineering

Intrade — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 03:38:15 GMT

We have opened today a new event category: Construction and Engineering. We have listed two markets in this new category: the opening date of the Freedom Tower in New York and the opening date of the Chicago Spire, both of which are currently under construction.

Will Michael Steele depart as chairman of the Republican National Committee?

Intrade — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 03:39:36 GMT

We have just listed a market for Michael Steele to depart as chairman of the Republican National Committee. This can be found under Politics -- Michael Steele.

Application Programmable Interface (API) - Access & Fees Update

Intrade — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 02:55:26 GMT

We have made changes to our API access policy and fees. The rationale for these changes is to open access further to trading through our API while also endeavouring to ensure current liquidity is not damaged but should reasonably improve. Everyone (subject to an agreement with Intrade) can now use our API subject to this agreement. Specifically please note the following API usage fees: For Read Only Access a Fee of $10 per month in advance may be charged in certain circumstances but typically not to those developing trading applications. For Transactional Access to any market without an Obligated Designated Market Maker a fee of $0.01 per lot traded will be charged in addition to any standard trading or expiry fees (this fee will be applied to the members account the following working day). For Transactional Access to any market with an existing Obligated Designated Market Maker a fee of $0.04 per lot traded will apply in addition to any standard trading or expiry fees (this fee will be applied to the members account the following working day). The markets that currently have an Obligated Designated Market Maker are: The daily intraday, daily close and touch markets for the DJIA The end of year and end of month DJIA markets If you have any questions regarding these new policies please contact us by email: help@intrade.com.

Will 2009 be one of the hottest on record?

Intrade — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 02:37:56 GMT

We have listed a market on 2009 being one of the five warmest years on record. This market can be found under Climate and Weather -- Global Temperatures.

Will Larry Kudlow run for the US Senate in 2010?

Intrade — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 07:19:38 GMT

We have opened a market on Larry Kudlow announcing he will run for the US Senate in 2010. This market can be found under Politics -- 2010 US Midterms. Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

Liv-Ex 100 Fine Wine Market

Intrade — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 01:14:22 GMT

Intrade is please to announce the listing of a market based on the Liv-Ex 100 Fine Wine Index. This index is calculated monthly and published by Live-Ex, the Fine Wine Exchange. We have listed a series of contracts based on the value of the Live-Ex 100 at the end of 2009. If the index closes at or above the value specified in the contract the contract will settle at 100 ($10.00). If closes at a lower value then the contract will settles at 0 ($0.00). This market can be found under Fine Wine -- Liv-Ex Wine Index. Please ensure that you have read and understood the rules for this market before making a trade, and please contact Intrade at help@intrade.com should have any questions.

How low will the Dow go before the end 2009/2010?

Intrade — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 01:01:46 GMT

We have opened markets on how the low the Dow will go before the end of 2009 and 2010. These markets can be found under Financials -- Dow Jones Index. We have listed a number of strikes in each market, and if the DJIA closes at or below one of these strikes before the end of the specified year then that contract will expire at 100. Please read the contract rules carefully and please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

Will Tim Geithner depart as Secretary of the Treasury?

Intrade — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 12:29:34 GMT

We have listed a market on the departure of Tim Geithner as Secretary of the Treasury. This can be found under Politics -- Tim Geithner. Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

Will Rahm Emanuel depart as Chief of Staff before end of first term?

Intrade — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 06:22:08 GMT

We have listed a market for Rahm Emanuel to depart his current position as White House Chief of Staff before the end of President Barack Obama's first term in office. This market can be found under Politics -- Rahm Emanuel. Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade

Will the Employee Free Choice Act become law?

Intrade — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 02:45:24 GMT

We have opened a market on the Employee Free Choice Act becoming law in the United States. This market can be found under Politics -- US Congress. Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

Visual Presentation of Election 2008 Historical Data

Intrade — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 06:16:22 GMT

Intrade's state markets for the US 2008 election predicted the exact final electoral college vote counts for each candidate. Now, you can track the history of Intrade's US election 2008 prediction markets through its interactive visual historical data interface. The new historical data application allows users to track the race day-by-day over the year leading up to November 4th. The application extends Intrade's celebrated Realtime Electoral College Predictor to include graphical electoral college vote count projections using both the Leaning and Average methodologies. Intrade's historical predictive market data page provides full support and transparency to those wishing to assess prediction market performance.

The race for 2012 has begun

Intrade — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 12:28:02 GMT

Intrade has opened markets on the 2010 and 2012 election cycles after achieving over 700% cycle-on-cycle growth in the 2008 markets. "In response to numerous requests from our traders and the media we have taken the unprecedented step of listing these markets before the end of the 2008 cycle," said Intrade Chief Executive John Delaney. The new markets allow traders to invest in long-term House and Senate control markets, presidential nominee markets, and presidential party winner markets. The markets, says Delaney, will give valuable real-money backed estimates of the political landscape in the United States over the next four years. The first names on the Republican nominee markets are Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney, with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton listed on the Democratic side. No Fees! "As a gesture of thanks to the thousands of political traders from the world over who have contributed to the success of our 2008 election markets, the company will pay all trading fees on the 2010 and 2012 US political markets for the remainder of 2008," according to Delaney.

Default of Debts

Intrade — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 12:50:24 GMT

Intrade has now listed a market on various countries defaulting on their debts. This market can be found under Financials -- Economic Numbers -- Default of Debts. Contract Rules: A contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the country named in the contract defaults on their debts before 11:59:59pm ET on the date sepcified in the contract. A contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if the country named in the contract DOES NOT default on their debts before 11:59:59pm ET on the date sepcified in the contract. Expiry will be based on reports of a default on debt by Rueters, Bloomberg or other independent and reliable media source. Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.7 Unforeseen Circumstances. The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate. Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Exchange Rule 1.4 Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

When will the GM Volt go on Sale?

Intrade — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 01:50:04 GMT

Intrade has listed a market on when the General Motors Volt will go on sale. This market can be found under Transportation -- GM Volt. Contract Rules: A contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if General Motors delivers 500 Volts to dealers before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract. A contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if General Motors DOES NOT deliver 500 Volts to dealers before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract. Expiry will be based on official announcements from General Motors, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources. Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.7 Unforeseen Circumstances. The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate. Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Exchange Rule 1.4 Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

2010 and 2012 US Elections

Intrade — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 01:15:12 GMT

Intrade has now listed markets on the outcome of the 2010 US midterm elections and the 2012 presidential elections. These markets can be found under: * Politics -- 2010 US Midterms * Politics -- 2012 US Elections Once the results of the 2008 presidential elections are knwon we will be opening markets for party nominations and the individual winner of the presidency for 2012. Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding these markets before you place a trade.

Paulson's Courageous Action

Intrade — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 04:35:22 GMT

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is the man of the hour.

Recession Chances Climb on Big Bank Failures

Intrade — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 06:55:49 GMT

Intrade's Prediction Markets indicate that the chances of a recession hitting this year have increased dramatically since late Sunday.

CNBC Features Intrade - Cashing in on the election

Intrade — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 01:04:28 GMT

CNBC Covers Intrade.com on Squawk Box August 25th 2008

Virgin Galactic - Commercial Space Travel

Intrade — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 01:42:55 GMT

Intrade has listed a market on Virgin Galactic taking a paid customer into suborbital space. This market can be found under Transportaion -- Space Travel -- Virgin Galactic - Commercial Space Travel. Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

Intrade's Public Comment to US Futures Regulator (the "CFTC") on Prediction Markets Regulation

Intrade — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 10:30:35 GMT

Recently the US Futures Regulator (the CFTC) asked for public comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of prediction markets, also known as event markets or information markets.

Here is a link to Intrade's public comment lodged July 4th 2008.

Here is a link to their press release

Reality Markets and Intrade Announce Collaboration

Intrade — Wed, 28 May 2008 05:05:59 GMT

DUBLIN/NEW YORK, May 28, 2008 â€” Intrade and Reality Markets announced today that they have reached an understanding to explore areas of collaboration that would mutually benefit the memberships of both prediction market platforms and prediction market users generally. These include: * The adoption of a standardized event market specifications starting with Reality Markets listing Intrade markets and prices on its platform * Cooperation in developing future event market categories and contracts * Cooperation in exploring the feasibility of each exchange offering the other's markets and market data. Please visit this URL for full details of this collaboration: https://www.intrade.com/news/mainpage.jsp

ABC 20/20 featuring Intrade. May 9th, 10PM

Intrade — Fri, 09 May 2008 04:55:51 GMT

ABC 20/20 are doing a story featuring Intrade on May 9th at 10PM EST.

New Market: Amendment to UIGEA

Intrade — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 11:49:42 GMT

We have listed a contract on an amendment to the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act being passed before the end of 2010, and that Rep. Barney Frank will be a sponser of the bill. This contract can be found under Legal -- Internet Gaming. Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

Intrade Google Widget Gadget

Intrade — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 10:17:09 GMT

Intrade Google Widget Gadget Displays Intrade's most active most active daily markets. http://www.google.ie/ig/directory?hl=en&url=www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/home/ghp/quoteboard.xml Please let us know if you would like a customizable widget / gadget to press AT intrade . com

Politimetrics from the University of Westminster

Intrade — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 06:23:01 GMT

On Behalf of the University of Westminster Intrade would like to inform you of Politimetrics "Polymetrics ---------------------- What candidate would have the highest probability to win the presidential election if nominated? What candidate has the program which is more likely to foster growth, reduce unemployment and crime? -------------------------------------- All these crucial questions for the voters in this 2008 US election cannot be answered using traditional polls. Using prediction markets in a innovative way, the website www.politimetrics.com proposes the answers to these questions. www.politimetrics.com presents the estimation of the the conditional probability of success of each candidate if nominated/elected. The numbers are estimated live, directly from the prices on specific Intrade contracts. For the traders on www.intrade.com, this innovation has two interests. First it provides additional information to help traders to seize opportunities in the mispricing of some contracts. The information provided by www.politimetrics.com can reveal that some contracts are over or under priced. Any such situation creates positive expected gains for those correcting these prices. Second, it also provides additional interest for the trade because of the information built from these markets. We would appreciate if Intrade traders would look at our website and at the markets listed in the section "Impact of next president". As a result of the trade on these markets, we will build the same kind of graphics depicted on www.politimetrics.com, to answer the following kind of questions: - Is Hilary Clinton more likely to be effective in managing the economy than John McCain? - Is Rudy Giuliani more likely to decrease crime than Barack Obama? We really hope that Intrade traders will enjoy the creation of this website and this initiative. We appreciate your feedback here in this Forum."

US Unemployment Rate

Intrade — Mon, 14 Jan 2008 11:23:52 GMT

The Exchange has listed a series of contracts on the unemployment rate in the United States at the end of 2008. These contracts can be found under Financial -- Economic Numbers -- US Unemployment Rate. Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

2016 Summer Olympics

Intrade — Wed, 18 Apr 2007 02:47:15 GMT

The Exchange has listed contracts on which region of the world will play host to the 2016 Summer Olympic Games. These contracts can be found under Current Events -- Olympic Games. A further group of contracts on which particular city will host the games will be listed in September when official applications close for potential hosts. The contract rules are as follows: A contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if a venue located in the region specified in the contract is selected as host of the 2016 Olympic Games. A contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if the venue selected as host of the 2016 Olympic Games is not located in the region specified in the contract. Expiry will be based on the official announcement of the host due to be made by the International Olympic Committee on 2nd October, 2009. For expiry purposes India, Turkey and Middle Eastern countries (excluding those in Africa) will be considered part of Asia, and central American countries are considered part of South America. Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.9 Unforeseen Circumstances. The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate. Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Exchange Rule 1.4 Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

Chinese Military Action Against Taiwan

Intrade — Wed, 21 Mar 2007 12:44:30 GMT

The Exchange has listed contracts on China taking military action against Taiwan. These contracts can be found under Current Events -- Taiwan A contract will close (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if China conducts overt military action against Taiwan, either within or outside of Taiwanese territory, before the end of the day (ET) specified in the contract. The contract will expire at 0 ($0.00) if no overt military action is taken. Any action must be officially and publicly announced by an official or agency of an interested government (including, but not limited to, China, Taiwan, Japan, United States) and reported in three independent and reliable media sources before the contract will be expired at 100. Overt military action is defined as any military attack on Taiwanese military or civilian targets or infrastructure by Chinese naval, air or ground forces. This includes any defensive or retaliatory actions. Covert action taken by Chinese military or intelligence agencies that is not officially and publicly announced by an agency or official of a government and reported in three independent and reliable media sources will not be considered for expiry purposes. Any military blockade undertaken by China against Taiwan or any inspection of Taiwanese vessels conducted by the Chinese military will not be considered an overt military action. In the event of an action being launched before midnight on the expiration date, but not executed until after midnight that contract will be expired at 0 as actual military engagement must take place in order for an overt military action to have occurred. Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.9 Unforeseen Circumstances The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate. Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Exchange Rule 1.4 Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

Intrade Google Gadget Live

Intrade — Tue, 20 Mar 2007 09:50:09 GMT

Intrade Google Gadget Live Intrade has just published its beta Google Gadgets here. The Intrade Gadget will run on multiple Google products, including your Personalized Homepage, and Desktop. Our beta Gadget includes the most active contracts of the day. You can add the Intrade Gadget by going to www.intrade.com and clicking on the Google link on the bottom right of the screen. Alternatively, click on this link: http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.intrade.com%2Fjsp%2Fintrade%2Fhome%2Fghp%2Fquoteboard.xml

Contract on US Economy going into Recession

Intrade — Tue, 20 Mar 2007 09:52:44 GMT

The Exchange has listed a contract on the United States economy going into recession during 2007. This contract can be found under Financial -- Economic Numbers -- US Economy in Recession. This contract will expire at 100 if the United States economy goes into recession during 2007. The contract will expire at 0 if it does not. For expiry purposes a recession is defined as two successive quarters of negative real economic growth. Expiry will be based on figures released by the United States Department of Commerce and reported in three independent and reliable media sources. The contract will be expired once the 2007 fourth-quarter figures are released (may not be until 2008). If however the 2007 third-quarter figures show positive growth the contract will be expired at 0. Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.9 Unforeseen Circumstances. Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account -Exchange Rule 1.4. The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate. Please contact the exchange if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade

North Korea Contracts

Intrade — Tue, 20 Mar 2007 09:46:51 GMT

US MILITARY ACTION AGAINST NORTH KOREA Contracts based on the possibility of US military action against North Korea are now open on the Exchange under Current Events --- North Korea. The contract will expire at 100 if the United States conducts an overt military action against North Korea, either within or outside of North Korean territory, on or before 11:59:59pm ET on or before the date specified in the contract. The contract will expire at 0 if no overt military action is taken. Any action must be officially and publicly announced by an official or agency of the United States government and reported in three independent and reputable media sources before the contract will be expired at 100. Overt military action is defined as any military attack on North Korean military or civilian targets or infrastructure by United States naval, air or ground forces. This includes any defensive or retaliatory actions. Covert action taken by US military or intelligence agencies that is not officially and publicly announced by an agency or official of the United States government and reported in three independent and reputable media sources will not be considered for expiry purposes. Any military blockade undertaken by the United States against North Korea or any inspection of North Korean vessels conducted by the United States military will not be considered an overt military action. If US forces are involved in a joint overt military action with armed forces from other countries the contract will expire at 100. In the event of an action commencing before midnight on the expiration date, but not executed until after midnight that contract will be expired at 0 as actual military engagement must take place in order for an overt military action to have occurred. Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.9 Unforeseen Circumstances The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

Iran - Air Strike

Intrade — Tue, 20 Mar 2007 09:45:03 GMT

The Exchange has listed contracts on the USA and/or Israel launching an overt air strike against Iran on or before the time/date specified in the contract. The contract(s) can be found under: Current Events> Iran > Israeli/ US Overt Air Strike against Iran. The contract(s) will be expired at 100 if (including but not limited to): The USA and/or Israel officially execute an overt Air Strike against land facilities or naval target in Iran on or before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract. The contract(s) will be expired at 0 if (including but not limited to): There is no such overt air strike executed against land facilities or naval target in Iran, on or before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract. An overt air strike against a land facility or naval target is defined as an air attack officially announced by the Pentagon/ the US Department of Defence or the Israel Ministry of Defense*. Clarification added August 18, 2006: *, or as independently reported in 3 reputable media sources such as Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Bloomberg or similar. Land facilities and naval targets include military and/or civilian targets. An air strike will be considered to have taken place even if the stated target is not hit, or the mission objective is not achieved. For the avoidance of doubt an air strike does not include ground-based or marine-based (ship or submarine) missile launches. An overt air strike will not include any covert operations (e.g. Mossad, CIA), accidental border clash, etc. For a definition of an air strike the exchange will use the military definition as published in Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms: Air strike: An attack on specific objectives by fighter, bomber, or attack aircraft on an offensive mission. May consist of several air organizations under a single command in the air. In the event of an air strike being launched before midnight on the expiration date, but not executed until after midnight that contract will be expired at 0 as the ordinance must have been hit in order for the air strike to have occurred. Clarification Added November 10,2005 If NATO/UN execute an air strike against Iran (within the specified time/date) and there are American and/or Israeli forces involved in this strike the contract will expire at 100. Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.9 Unforeseen Circumstances. The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate. Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account -Exchange Rule 1.4 Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

Asian Avian Flu

Intrade — Tue, 20 Mar 2007 09:44:12 GMT

The Exchange has listed 0-100 contracts on a case of Asian Avian Flu strain H5N1 being confirmed in the United States of America. The contracts can be found under Current Events> Bird Flu> Asian Bird Flu to be found in any breed of bird or fowl in the USA BIRDFLU.USA.DEC05 Bird 'flu to be confirmed in the USA ON/BEFORE 31st December 2005 BIRDFLU.USA.MAR06 Bird 'flu to be confirmed in the USA ON/BEFORE 31st March 2006 The contract(s) will be expired at 100 if at least one case of Avian 'flu strain H5N1 is confirmed in the USA by the 23:59:59 ET on the specific date The contract will be expired at 0 if there is no case of Avian 'flu strain H5N1 is confirmed in the USA by the 23:59:59 ET on the specific date. The US Government must officially confirm the case in any of the 50 states. (Puerto Rico is not counted). *** Clarification added to Contract Rule on November 20th 2005 *** For expiry purposes the 'Asian' avian 'flu strain H5N1 will be used. Further Clarification on "Asian" Avian Flu added August 15th, 2006 "Asian" Avian flu is also known as H5N1 High Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) http://www.cfsan.fda.gov/~dms/avfluqa.html *** Clarification added October 27th, 2005*** US Customs and Border Protection (US Homeland Security) does not consider any birds in customs quarantine to be resident within the USA. Therefore any birds (exotic or otherwise) confined in quarantine and not released into the USA will not be considered when expiring the contract. The 'flu strain may be found in any breed of bird or fowl. - Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.9 Unforeseen Circumstances - Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account -Exchange Rule 1.4 - The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate. Please contact the exchange if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.