Intrade Exchange News

New Market: Winner of the Eastleigh by-election (28 Feb 2013)

Intrade — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 01:41:26 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for the winner of the Eastleigh by-election, scheduled for 28 Feb 2013. This market can be found under Politics > UK Politics.

As always, please be sure to read all market specific rules before making any trades and please contact us at help@intrade.com if you have any questions

New Markets: The next Pope of the Catholic Church

Intrade — Tue, 12 Feb 2013 11:11:10 GMT

Intrade has listed a series of new markets related to the appointment of the next Pope(succeeding Benedict XVI):

Who will succeed Benedict XVI as the next Catholic Pope?

What will be the nationality of the next Pope?

How many ballots will be required to appoint the next Pope?

These markets can all be found under Current Events > The Papacy. Please be sure to read all market specific rules before making any trades and contact us at help@intrade.com if you have any questions.

New Market: Who will be the next President of Iran?

Intrade — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 04:42:58 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for the next President of Iran. This market can be found under Politics > Iranian Politics.

As always, please be sure to read all market specific rules before making any trades and please contact us at help@intrade.com if you have any questions.

New Market: UK economy to slip into recession during 2013

Intrade — Mon, 28 Jan 2013 08:41:16 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for the UK economy to go into recession during 2013. This market can be found under Financial > European Eco Numbers.

Before you make any trades please read the market specific rules so you're familiar with how a recession will be defined and what information will bee used to settle the market. If you have any questions please contact us at help@intrade.com.

New Market: Confirmation of Jack Lew as Secretary of the US Treasury

Intrade — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 10:43:55 GMT

Intrade has listed a market for the confirmation of Jack Lew as Secretary of the US Treasury. This market can be found under Politics > US Politics.

Please ensure you read the market rules before you make any trades and please contact the help desk if you gave any questions regarding this market.

New Markets: 2013 BAFTA Awards

Intrade — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 10:35:27 GMT

Intrade has opened markets for the main categories at this years British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA's). These markets can be found under Entertainment > BAFTA Awards.

Please be sure to read the market rules before you make any tades and please contact us at help@intrade.com if you have any questions.

New Market: 2013 German Election

Intrade — Wed, 23 Jan 2013 11:46:07 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for which party will provide the Chancellor of Germany following the 2013 German federal election.

This market can be found under Politics > German Politics.

Please be sure to read the market rules before you make any trades and please contact us at help@intrade.com if you have any questions.

New Market: Earthquake Magnitudes (2013)

Intrade — Mon, 21 Jan 2013 07:06:13 GMT

Intrade has opened markets for whether or not earthquakes of certain magnitudes will occur anywhere in the world during 2013.

These markets can be found under Current Events > Earthquakes.

Please ensure you read the market rules carefully before making any trades and if you have any questions please contact help@intrade.com.

New Market: Who will be the next Italian Prime Minister?

Intrade — Mon, 21 Jan 2013 07:00:06 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for who will be Prime Minister of Italy after the 2013 general election (scheduled for Feb 24-25, 2013).

This market can be found under Politics > Italian Politics.

Please ensure you read the market specific rules and please contact help@intrade.com if you have any questions - before you make any trades.

New Market: Who will win the 2013 Liberal Party of Canada leadership election?

Intrade — Thu, 17 Jan 2013 11:31:50 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for the winner of the Liberal Party of Canada leadership election, scheduled for April 14, 2013. This market can be found under Politics > Canadian Politics.

As always please read the market rules before you make any trades and contact us at help@intrade.com if you have any questions.

New Markets: 2013 Australian Federal Election

Intrade — Wed, 16 Jan 2013 11:56:24 GMT

Intrade has opened a marker for the winner of the next Australian federal election (which must be held before Nov 30, 2013). This market can be found under Politics > Australian Politics.

A market has also been opened for Julia Gillard and Tony Abbot to be the leaders of the Australian Labor Party and the Australian Liberal Party at the next federal election. This market can also be found under Politics > Australian Politics.

Please ensure you read the market rules before you make any trades and please contact the help desk if you gave any questions regarding this market.

New Market: The US debt ceiling to be increased

Intrade — Mon, 14 Jan 2013 06:29:41 GMT

Intrade has listed market for the US debt ceiling to be increased before the end of March 2013. This market can be found under Politics > US Politics.

As always, please ensure you read the market rules before you make any trades and please contact the help desk if you gave any questions regarding this market.

New Markets: 2014 and 2016 US Elections

Intrade — Mon, 14 Jan 2013 06:14:06 GMT

Intrade has opened new markets for the 2014 US mid-term elections and the 2016 US presidential elections.

For the 2014 mid-terms:

Will the Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives in 2014 mid-term elections?
Will the Democrats retain control of the Senate in 2014 mid-term elections?

Please note we are listing only one market for the Senate and one for the House. Please see the market specific rules for details on how this will work. Please also see the rules for how seats held by Independents will be considered - this is now different from recent election markets.

For the 2016 Presidential elections:

Winner of the 2016 US Presidential Election - Party
2016 Republican Presidential Nominee (suggestions welcome)
2016 Democratic Presidential Nominee (suggestions welcome)

We think it's a bit early yet for an individual Presidential market - we'll let things develop a little further and see how it looks later this year.

As always, please ensure you read the market rules before you make any trades and please contact the help desk if you gave any questions regarding this market.

New Market: End-of-year and monthly DJIA

Intrade — Wed, 09 Jan 2013 10:51:52 GMT

Intrade has now opened a market for the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the end of 2013. The market can be found under Financial > Dow Jones Index.

We have also listed a market for January 2013, and will continue to list monthly markets throughout the year.

Please ensure you read the market rules before you make any trades and please contact the help desk if you gave any questions regarding this market.

New Market: Confirmation of Chuck Hagel as Sec. of Defense

Intrade — Wed, 09 Jan 2013 10:17:45 GMT

Intrade has listed a market for the confirmation of Chuck Hagel as US Secretary of Defense. This market can be found under Politics > US Politics.

Please ensure you read the market rules before you make any trades and please contact the help desk if you gave any questions regarding this market.

New Academy Awards Markets: Best Actor, Actress, Director, Supporting Actor and Actress

Intrade — Mon, 10 Dec 2012 01:54:06 GMT

Intrade has now opened new markets for the winner of the following categories at the 85th Academy Awards:

Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Director
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress

These markets can be found under Entertainment > Academy Awards.

Due to the pending closure of all US accounts, these markets are not be available to our US customers.

As always please ensure you've read the market specific rules before you make any trades and please contact the Intrade helpdesk (click on the Support tab to the right side of this page) if you have any questions or need any help.

New Market: Academy Award for Best Picture

Intrade — Mon, 22 Oct 2012 04:44:13 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for the winner of the Academy Award for Best Picture. This market can be found under Entertainment > Academy Awards.

This market is open for sensible suggestions. If you have a suggestion please email markets@intrade.com.

When the nominations are announced a few weeks before the awards ceremony we'll settle all movies not nominated at $0.00 and any movie not listed will be added to the market. Everything will then be settled when the awards are handed out in February.

We will add markets fro Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Director over the next week or so.

If you have any questions about this please contact the help desk.

New Market: NY City Snowfall

Intrade — Mon, 15 Oct 2012 03:04:34 GMT

Intrade has opened markets for the number of inches of snowfall in Central Park, New York City, between 1st October 2012 and 30th April 2013.

These markets can be found under Climate and Weather > NY City Snowfall.

As always please make sure you read the market rules published on the website for this particular market before you make any trades. Please contact us at help@intrade.com if you have any questions.

Follow Intrade on Facebook and Twitter

Intrade — Mon, 01 Oct 2012 01:17:08 GMT

Follow all of the news, announcements, opinions and market analysis from Intrade on our new Facebook page.

Receive market updates, announcements of new features and markets and other Intrade happenings directly to your Facebook news-feed. You can also follow the upcoming US election on our Obama vs. Romney scoreboard and the other features (such as an interactive Electoral College map) that will be added soon.

You can also follow Intrade on Twitter.

Weekly Box-Office Markets now listed Friday

Intrade — Fri, 25 May 2012 08:59:22 GMT

Starting today, our weekly box-office returns markets will be listed on a Friday and not Monday.

New Transaction History Options on the My Intrade page

Intrade — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 02:57:23 GMT

We have added an extended Transaction History options to the Intrade beta interface (these options will not be made available on the older interface).

In addition seeing a 7 day, 14 day, 30 day and 60 day transaction history, you can now see a 90 day history and a full history for 2011 and for 2012 (useful for those who need to do their taxes).

All transaction histories can also now be downloaded as a CVS file using the link on the Transaction History page.

Market Rules Clarification: US or Israeli airstrike against Iran

Intrade — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 02:50:05 GMT

Following a customer enquiry, Intrade would like to clarify the market rules published on the website for our market regarding a US or Israeli airstrike against Iran.

For these markets to be settled at $10.00 any airstrike (as defined by the market rules) must be executed against an Iranian target. A market will not be settled at $10.00 if there is an airstrike executed against a non-Iranian target.

An example of an attack against a non-Iranian target would be an airstrike to destroy a US drone or other aircraft that has gone down in Iranian territory before it is recovered by Iranian forces. If Iranian targets are also attacked in the course of this airstrike however, the market will be settled at $10.00.

A clarification has now been added to the market rules published on the website. Please note that this is NOT a change to the rules, it is a clarification to the existing rules.

The markets are currently suspended and trading will be resumed at 16:00 GMT today (Thursday). If you wish to cancel any open orders to buy or sell shares in these markets I suggest you do this before trading is resumed.

New Prediction Market: Scottish Independence

Intrade — Wed, 18 May 2011 02:43:49 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for the outcome of a referendum on Scottish independence. This market can be found under Politics > UK Politics.

Market Rules:

This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if Scotland votes YES to independence in a referendum before the time and date specified in the contract.

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if Scotland votes NO to independence in a referendum before the time and date specified in the contract.

Expiry will be based on the official outcome of any referendum held on Scottish independence, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources.

This market applies only to the outcome of a referendum. If no referendum is held before the time and date specified in the contract the contract will be settled at 0 ($0.00).

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Contract Rule 1.4

Due to the nature of this prediction market contract you are obligated to read Contract Rule 1.7 (Unforeseen Circumstances) and Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection). Intrade may invoke these rules in its absolute discretion if deemed appropriate.

Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract or interpretation of these contract specific rules, related exchange news articles or exchange rules before you place an order to trade.

New Prediction Market: Bashar al-Assad (President of Syria)

Intrade — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 09:29:05 GMT

A market for Bashar al-Assad to be gone as the President of Syria has been added to our Middle East markets.

These markets can be found under Foreign Affair/International Security > Middle East Protests.

As always please be sure to red the contract rules before making any orders to trade, and please contact us at help@intrade.com if you have any questions.

Intrade Adds More Prediction Market Transparency

Intrade — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 12:50:12 GMT

Intrade has just launched a new feature that displays the last 100 real money predictions made using the web interface.

The information disclosed includes the market predicted on, the price and whether the person bought (buy) or sold(sell), and the physical location of the person entering the order.

We do not display orders that we receive over our API as including such orders would result in circa 100,000 predominantly financial orders streaming in and obfuscating other important and representative orders.

The new page is available at the bottom right of our home page or by clicking on this link…

http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/recentpredictions/

Below you will find a selection of most recent orders:

API Automated Predictions (thousands per hour) are excluded.

Muammar al-Gaddafi to no longer be leader of Libya before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 predicted to be above $0.10 / share

Sokolov, Czech Republic

Apple iPad unit sales to be 25 million (or more) in fiscal year 2011 predicted to be above $5.01 / share

Volda, Norway

Muammar al-Gaddafi to no longer be leader of Libya before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 predicted to be below $7.50 / share

Budapest, Hungary

Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 predicted to be below $1.00 / share

Izmir, Turkey

Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 predicted to be below $1.07 / share

Izmir, Turkey

A fourth explosion to occur at a Japanese Nuclear power plant before midnight ET 31 Mar 2011 predicted to be below $2.77 / share

Ljubljana, Slovenia

Limitless to gross OVER $6.0M in opening weekend predicted to be above $1.00 / share

Oxford, United States

Sucker Punch to gross OVER $20.0M in opening weekend predicted to be above $9.00 / share

Oxford, United States

Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 predicted to be above $7.54 / share

Oxford, United States

The Google Lunar X Prize to be won on/before 31 Dec 2012 predicted to be above $4.60 / share

Oxford, United States

Next Canadian general election to be held on/before 30 Jun 2011 predicted to be above $4.00 / share

Morell, Canada

Tim Pawlenty to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012 predicted to be above $1.87 / share

Atlanta, United States

DOW to close UP by 25 points or more on prev close predicted to be above $4.15 / share

Morell, Canada

DOW to close HIGHER than prev close predicted to be above $4.50 / share

Morell, Canada

A fourth explosion to occur at a Japanese Nuclear power plant before midnight ET 31 Mar 2011 predicted to be above $2.60 / share

Chris Christie to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012 predicted to be above $0.34 / share

Rudy Guiliani to announce he will run for President before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 predicted to be above $2.15 / share

New York, United States

Haley Barbour to announce he will run for President before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 predicted to be above $7.50 / share

New York, United States

DOW to close DOWN by 25 points or more on prev close predicted to be above $0.10 / share

Morell, Canada

DOW to close UP by 50 points or more on prev close predicted to be above $0.10 / share

Morell, Canada

DOW to close UP by 25 points or more on prev close predicted to be above $0.10 / share

Morell, Canada

DOW to close HIGHER than prev close predicted to be above $0.10 / share

Morell, Canada

Muammar al-Gaddafi to no longer be leader of Libya before midnight ET 30 Apr 2011 predicted to be above $4.10 / share

Morell, Canada

DOW to close UP by 200 points or more on prev close predicted to be below $9.00 / share

Powder Springs, United States

DOW to close HIGHER than prev close predicted to be above $0.10 / share

Morell, Canada

Intrade markets perform well at this years Academy Awards

Intrade — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 04:55:01 GMT

Dr. Mark J. Perry, Professor of Economics and Finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan has examined the performance of Intrade's prediction markets for this year's Academy Awards.

His full blog post can be read HERE.

See Intrade on CNBC Tuesday 25th January circa 2 pm ET.

Intrade — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 03:17:05 GMT

We are very pleased to be invited once again by CNBC to appear on their network. The expected feature ahead of President Obamas State of the Union speech between John Delaney, CEO of Intrade and Erin Burnett of CNBC is scheduled for shortly after 2 pm ET on 25th January 2011. We hope you have opportunity to see it.

Effective 1st January Intrade is radically changing how it encourages trading

Intrade — Thu, 16 Dec 2010 02:04:52 GMT

Intrade expects trading liquidity to improve dramatically with our radical new fee structure.

Trading and expiry fees have been removed entirely.

They are being replaced instead with a modest monthly “trading seat” fee of only US$4.99.

This fee will be charged on the first day of every month, beginning 1st January.

We have improved our software to handle higher volumes as we continuously emphasize the fair pricing of contracts between members on our platform.

Visual data display lets members detect contracts that interest them. With this new incentive to trade we expect to see more trading on these contracts with closer spreads.

Furthermore, we will make our application programmable interface (API)* freely available to all members.

We hope members will applaud these improvements by sharply increasing their use of the services we offer.

As always, your feedback is the best guide we have on the improvements we can implement.

Good fortunes trading from all at Intrade.

*The Intrade API is an interface to encourage interaction with our platform in a manner and method entirely under your control. The Intrade API allows anyone to develop widgets, apps, prediction methods, robots, and crawlers that allow you to read from, and write to, (i.e. make predictions) Intrade in a fully customizable manner.

New Prediction Market: When will the next US Supreme Court Justice retire or resign from the Court?

Intrade — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 04:13:11 GMT

Intrade has listed a market for the next resignation or retirement of a US Supreme Court Judge.

This market can be found under Legal > Supreme Court.

Contract Rules:

A contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if a current US Supreme Court Justice announces their retirement or resignation from the Court before midnight ET on the date specified in the contract.

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if a current US Supreme Court Justice does not announce their retirement or resignation from the Court before midnight ET on the date specified in the contract.

Expiry will be based on official public announcements from members of the US Supreme Court, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources.

This contract will be expired when a retirement or resignation is officially announced. The retirement or resignation does not have to take effect for the contracts to be expired, it only has to be announced.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Contract Rule 1.4

See Intrade on the Riz Khan Show on Al Jazeera

Intrade — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 10:15:51 GMT

See Intrade on the Riz Khan Show on Al Jazeera.

Intrade`s Prediction Market Performance for the Academy Awards

Intrade — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 12:42:37 GMT

Intrade`s Prediction Market Performance for the Academy Awards Please see a blog post by Dr. Mark J. Perry, Professor of Economics and Finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan on the performance of Intrade?s markets for the Oscar`s. http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2010/03/intrade-odds-academy-awards-leaders.html Dr. Perry did not mention our market for the Winner of Best Foreign Language Film. Our market had ?The Secret in Their Eyes (El Secreto de Sus Ojos) as the second most likely to win the Oscar.

Intrade in the Press

Intrade — Thu, 21 May 2009 09:22:58 GMT

Intrade received a number of mentions in the global press over the last week. Here are some of the stories...

Visual Presentation of Election 2008 Historical Data

Intrade — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 06:16:22 GMT

Intrade's state markets for the US 2008 election predicted the exact final electoral college vote counts for each candidate. Now, you can track the history of Intrade's US election 2008 prediction markets through its interactive visual historical data interface. The new historical data application allows users to track the race day-by-day over the year leading up to November 4th. The application extends Intrade's celebrated Realtime Electoral College Predictor to include graphical electoral college vote count projections using both the Leaning and Average methodologies. Intrade's historical predictive market data page provides full support and transparency to those wishing to assess prediction market performance.

CNBC Features Intrade - Cashing in on the election

Intrade — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 02:04:28 GMT

CNBC Covers Intrade.com on Squawk Box August 25th 2008

ABC 20/20 featuring Intrade. May 9th, 10PM

Intrade — Fri, 09 May 2008 05:55:51 GMT

ABC 20/20 are doing a story featuring Intrade on May 9th at 10PM EST.