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New Prediction Market: Will the UK coalition survive?

Thursday, May 13, 2010

With last week's UK general election resulting in a hung parliament, David Cameron and the Conservatives joined forces with Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats to form Britain's first coalition government in sixty-five years.

But can a marriage between the centre-right Conservatives and the centre-left Liberal Democrats survive? There are certainly stark policy differences between the two parties on a number of issues: European integration, immigration and constitutional reform to name but three. Can these difference be reconciled to form a stable, lasting government?

Intrade has opened a new market on how long the coalition will survive. This market can be found under Politics > UK Politics.

Contract Rules:

A contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives announce an end to their formal coalition before midnight ET on the date specified in the contract.

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives remain in their formal coalition until midnight ET on the date specified in the contract.

For expiry proposes the coalition will be considered ended when a spokesperson from either party makes an official public statement confirming the coalition has formally ended. An expiry will be based these public announcements, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources.

The contract will be expired at 100 when the end of the coaltion has been announced. The actual end of the coalition does not need to occur for the contract to expire. For example: if there be an announcement be made in December that the coalition will formally end in January, the contract will be expired at 100 in December when the announcement is made.

Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.7 Unforeseen Circumstances.

The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Exchange Rule 1.4

Please contact the exchange by emailing if you have any questions or uncertainty regarding this contract or interpretation of these contract specific rules, related exchange news articles or Exchange Rules before you place an order.


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