New Prediction Market: Climate Change - Arctic Ice Extent

Tuesday, Apr 20, 2010

Intrade has opened a market for the minimum Arctic ice extent for 2010 to be greater than that of 2009.

This market can be found under Climate and Weather > Arctic Ice Extent.

Contract Rules:

This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the minimum Arctic ice extent for 2010 is greater than that of 2009.

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if the minimum Arctic ice extent for 2010 is not greater than that of 2009.

This market will be expired on 31st October 2010. Expiry will be based on the minimum Arctic ice extent figure recorded using the IARC-JAXA Information System. Readings are taken on a daily basis and smoothed with a five-day moving average. These daily readings are published on a data table HERE.

(Please be aware that the most recent data on this table may change once the five-day moving average is fully applied. There may also be occasional corrections made to daily figures published on the table in theweeks following initial publication.)

The smallest recorded daily reading in the table on 31st October 2010 will be considered the minimum Arctic ice extent for 2010. This will be compared with the lowest recorded value for 2009 to determine contract expiry. (Please note the minimum Arctic ice extent is referred to on the IARC-JAXA Information System website as "sea ice extent.)

For reference purposes the minimum Arctic ice extent for 2009 was 5,249,844 square kilometres (recorded on 13th September). The minimum Arctic ice extent for 2010 must be greater than this figure for the contract to expire at 100.

Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.7 Unforeseen Circumstances.

The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Exchange Rule 1.4

Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions or uncertainty regarding this contract or interpretation of these contract specific rules, related exchange news articles or Exchange Rules before you place a trade.