New Prediction Market: US Budget Deficit for 2011

Sunday, Jan 23, 2011

Intrade has opened a market for the size of the US Federal budget deficit for the fiscal year of 2011 (1 Oct 2010 - 30 Sep 2011).

This market can be found under Financial > US Economic Numbers

Contract Rules:

A contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the US federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2011 is equal to or worse than the number specified in the contract.

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if the US federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2011 is not equal to or worse than the number specified in the contract.

This market will be expired using the budget figures published by the US Treasury in their quarterly Treasury Bulletin. The December 2011 bulletin will contain budget figures for the 2011 fiscal year (1 Oct 2009 - 30 Sep 2011).

The figure used for expiry will be the Total Surplus or Deficit (-) for Fiscal Year 2011 number published on the Total On and Off Budget Results and Financing of the US Government table.

As an example, the December 2010 bulletin can be found HERE. The Total On and Off Budget Results and Financing of the US Government table is found on page 11 of the printed document (page 18 of the PDF document). The Total Surplus or Deficit (-) for Fiscal Year 2010 is -1,294,090, (a deficit of $1.294 trillion).

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Contract Rule 1.4

Due to the nature of this prediction market contract you are obligated to read Contract Rule 1.7 (Unforeseen Circumstances) and Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection). Intrade may invoke these rules in its absolute discretion if deemed appropriate.

Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract or interpretation of these contract specific rules, related exchange news articles or exchange rules before you place an order to trade.