YOU MAY NOT TRADE THIS MARKET UNLESS YOU HAVE REVIEWED, UNDERSTOOD, AND ACCEPT THE FOLLOWING MARKET DEFINITION AND SETTLEMENT CRITERIA.  PLEASE REFER TO THE FINANCIAL CATEGORY / ECONOMIC NUMBERS FOR OTHER GDP MARKETS.

This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the annualized quarterly Real GDP figures over four consecutive quarters sum to worse than -10% (i.e. -10.1%).

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if the annualized quarterly Real GDP figures over four consecutive quarters sum to -10% or better (i.e. -10.0% or -9.9%)

This market will be expired by adding together the published (annualized) Real GDP figures, for example:

Example 1:

In Q1 the Final Real GDP figure is -3.5%
In Q2 the Final Real GDP figure is -2.5%
In Q3 the Final Real GDP figure is -2.0%
In Q4 the Final Real GDP figure is -2.3%

The sum of these figures is -10.3% so the contract will be expired at 100.

Example 2:

In Q1 the Final Real GDP figure is -1.5%
In Q2 the Final Real GDP figure is -2.5%
In Q3 the Final Real GDP figure is -1.8%
In Q4 the Final Real GDP figure is -2.0%

The sum of these figures is -7.8% so the contract will be expired at 0.

Example 3:

In Q1 the Final Real GDP figure is -3.0%
In Q2 the Final Real GDP figure is -2.5%
In Q3 the Final Real GDP figure is -2.5%
In Q4 the Final Real GDP figure is -2.0%

The sum of these figures is -10.0% so the contract will be expired at 0.

Expiry will be based on official quarterly final Real GDP figures reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table 1.1.1, "Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product") as reported by the BEA.  

The final quarterly Real GDP figures will be used for expiry - not the advance or preliminary numbers. Any revision of the final figures will not affect the original expiry.

Negative quarters in the preceding year will count towards the total GDP decline for expiration purposes. For example, if the total decline in GDP from Q3 2008 to Q2 2009 is worse then -10.0% (i.e. -10.1%) then the contract will expire at 100. The last quarter considered for expiry purposes will be Q4 of 2009.

Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.7 Unforeseen Circumstances.

The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Exchange Rule 1.4

Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

Annualized quarterly Real GDP figures for 4 consecutive quarters sum to worse than -10% (i.e -10.1%)

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Annualized quarterly Real GDP figures for 4 consecutive quarters sum to worse than -10% (i.e -10.1%)

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