Thursday, January 14th, 2010

On Tuesday Massachusetts will hold a special election to fill the Senate seat left empty by the death of Ted Kennedy late last year. 

Republican State Senator Scott Brown (pictured) is attempting to win the seat Kennedy held for 46 years, while State District Attorney Martha Coakley is trying to keep the seat Democratic and ensure that crucial 60th vote in the Senate.

Recent reports indicate the race has become a close contest and Republicans are sensing a very real opportunity to win. The Republicans may be confident but the Intrade market is not predicting an upset GOP victory.

The market currently shows Coakley with an 84.9% probability of taking the seat. Ted Kennedy's seat looks set to remain in Democratic hands, which will be vital for the Democrats as they try to pass one of Kennedy's signature issues - healthcare reform.

With the Golden Globe awards only a few days away Up in the Air has emerged as the clear favourite for best film in the drama category. 

This story of a corporate downsizer and his travels has already scooped a number of other prominent awards and has received six Golden Globe nominations, including George Clooney as best actor and Jason Reitman as best director.

The Intrade market gives Up in the Air a 59.0% chance of winning the Golden Globe, ahead of Avatar on 20.2% and The Hurt Locker on 14.0%. Up in the Air is also trading as favourite for this years Academy Award for Best Picture, with 36.9% chance of taking the Oscar. 

Nine is favoured to win the award for best film in the comedy or musical category. Six past Academy Award winners star in this musical romance, which the market currently gives an even 50.0% chance of winning the Golden Globe.

On December 11th golfing superstar Tiger Woods announced he was taking a break from the sport he has dominated for the last decade following revelations of infidelity. There is no doubt that Woods' image has been tarnished by the controversy and he has been dumped by a number of sponsors. But although his return to professional golf is uncertain he remains a sporting icon.

So when will Woods return to professional golf? The man himself has given no indication of when he will be back. The Intrade market believes an early return in unlikely, giving a 5.0% chance that he will return before the end of January and a 10.0% chance he will be back before the end of February.

The market is confident of a return before mid-year however. There is 69.0% chance he will be back before the end of April and a 78.0% probability before the end of June. 

Box office returns for this weekend's major movie releases

Will Tiger Woods lose any of his major sponsorship deals?

Will Harry Reid hold onto his Senate seat in  the 2010 midterm elections?

Will Sarah Palin announce a run for the White House? 

Will the US or Israel bomb Iran's nuclear facilities?

Who will win the next UK general election?

Will the United States introduce a "Wall Street" tax on financial transactions?

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