Wednesday, August 26th, 2009

The fierce debate over health care reform continues to prove a drag on Barack Obama's job approval ratings. According to poll aggregator Real Clear Politics he currently enjoys approval from 51.8% of the American people, with 42.0% disapproving of the job he is doing.

Obama's approval rating has declined steadily since May when it was sitting at just over 62.0%. By the end of June it had slipped to 59.4% and at the end of July it has declined to 53.6%.

What will Obama's approval rating be at the end of September? The Intrade market shows a 85.0% chance his approval rating will be above 45.0%, a 55.5% probability it will remain above 50.0% and only 20% that it will be back over 55.0%. This may also indicate a victory on health care will not be forthcoming.

At least for France, Germany, Hong Kong and Japan, who all registered positive economic growth in the second quarter. There are also strong signs the British economy will also exit recession in the near future. 

But what about the United States, the largest economy in the world? The signs are good according to the Intrade markets. The United States economy contracted by 0.5% in the second quarter, a much improved performance after contracting by 6.4% in quarter one. The Intrade market for the third quarter shows a 90.0% chance of positive growth, meaning an official end to the recession (as per our market rules).

Could the economy slip back into recession? The market for this happening in 2010 currently sits at 36.1%, which although low does show that persistent recessionary fears are still in the minds of many.

On Monday the Los Angeles county coroner ruled that the death of entertainment legend Michael Jackson was the result of homicide. An autopsy showed lethal levels of a powerful anesthetic drug and a number of sedatives. 

Will all eyes now squarely on Dr. Conrad Murray, Jackson's personal physician at the time of his death, will criminal charges be brought in relation to Jackson's death? 

It is important to note that although his death has been ruled a homicide this does not necessarily mean that it was the result of a crime. The Intrade market however strongly indicates that charges will in fact be laid. The market currently shows an 89.0% probability of charges before the end of this year.

United States Attorney General Eric Holder announced on Tuesday that a special prosecutor will be appointed to investigate the possible abuse of CIA detainees.

Since assuming office earlier this year President Obama sought to turn the page on the tactics and policies of the Bush administration and expressed a reluctance to prosecute those involved with the interrogation of suspected terrorists. But the decision to appoint an investigator creates the very real possibility that criminal charges could be laid against CIA interrogators

Intrade has just listed a new market on whether or not any CIA employee, present or former, will be charged or indicted in connection with the abuse of detainees before the end of 2010.

With a general election due sometime in the next twelve months the British Conservative party are looking strong. The Intrade market gives the Tories a 86.0% chance of winning the next election and ending Labour's twelve year run in government. Labour are given only a 10.0% chance of winning and the Liberal Democrats 1.3%.

In September 2007, with Labour in power, the Conservatives were given only a 35.6% chance of winning the next election. Tony Blair had resigned as Prime Minister and new leader Gordon Brown was enjoying a surge in the polls. But dwindling support for the Iraq war, corruption scandals and a succession of local election defeats have seen Labour's chances slide and the Conservatives move into their current position of strength. 

Will Rudy Giuliani run for Governor of New York in 2010? Trade this market here.

This weekend's major movie releases: The Final Destination and Halloween 2. How much will they take in their opening weekend? Trade this market here.

Who will be the next Justice to leave the United States Supreme Court? Trade this new market here.

Will a government run "public option" health insurance plan be passed before the end of the year? Trade this market here.

Who will be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2012? Romney, Jindal, Palin, Pawlenty? Trade this market here.

Will the Republicans re-take the White House is 2012? Trade this market here.

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