The Political Prediction Markets

May 22nd, 2008. In This issue...

Bulls: Who’s Advancing?

Bears: Who’s Declining?

Most Active: Show me the $!

Benchmark Markets

Clinton vows to keep fighting as Obama nears finish line 

This bulletin provides a snapshot of the hundreds of important political and related markets on the Intrade exchange.

It highlights the week’s biggest winners, biggest losers and most actively traded markets.

In a world of data overload we aim to deliver succinct, accurate information to keep you up-to-date.

Democratic Nomination Market

The Oregon and Kentucky primaries held on Tuesday night did nothing to alter the landscape of this market. 

Barack Obama, who recorded a comfortable win in Oregon but suffered a heavy defeat to Hillary Clinton in Kentucky, remains the overwhelming favourite for the nomination. Tuesdays primaries gave him a majority of pledged delegates and leaves him just 70 delegates shy of securing the nomination. This is reflected in his current price of 92.8, which up 1.2 points from his price of 91.6 a week ago.

Clinton, who has vowed to keep fighting, has seen her already slim chances slip further. Her current price of 6.3 is down 0.7 points from last weeks value of 7.0. She now trails Obama by a massive margin of 86.5 points and with only a handful of primaries left the market is giving her little chance of overtaking Obama and winning the nomination.

Next on the primary calendar is Puerto Rico on June 1st, followed by the last two contests on June 3rd in Montana and South Dakota.

Next President Market

As the battle for the Democratic nomination continues, John McCain has managed to close the gap slightly on market leader Barack Obama. 

Obama’s has almost secured his parties nomination following Tuesdays primaries, requiring only 70 more delegates to make it certain. He did suffer a slight dip in form this week but remains in pole-position in this market with a healthy lead. His current price of 56.4 is down 0.8 points from last weeks value of 57.2. 

McCain, who will meet this week with possible vice-presidential running mates, is currently trading at 40.0, which is up 2.8 points on last weeks value of 37.2 and the highest he has traded since the beginning of May. He currently sits 16.4 points behind Obama after training by 20.0 points last week.

Clinton’s value has slipped further as Obama moves closer to securing the Democratic nomination. Her current price of 5.8 is down 1.3 points from last weeks value of 7.1.