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The Political Prediction Markets

May 15th, 2008. In This issue...


Bulls: Who’s Advancing?


Bears: Who’s Declining?


Most Active: Show me the $!


Benchmark Markets

 

Obama pulls away from Clinton and McCain as he closes in on the Democratic nomination

 

This bulletin provides a snapshot of the hundreds of important political and related markets on the Intrade exchange.


It highlights the week’s biggest winners (Obama), biggest losers (Clinton) and most actively traded markets.


In a world of data overload we aim to deliver succinct, accurate information to keep you up-to-date.

 

The Intrade Bulls

Markets or candidates that have performed well recently (normally 7 days).

Probability of Victory

7 Days Ago

Today

 Change Change % Chart
Obama to be Next President 54.7 58.7 +4.0 7.3 Chart
Obama to be Dem Presidential Nominee 90.0 91.9 +1.9 2.1 Chart
Next President to be a Democrat 60.5 61.1 +0.6 1.0 Chart
McCain to be Next President 37.7 38.0 +0.3 0.8 Chart

 

Note: Occasionally we will include Bull Markets even if they are not the top % gainers.

 

The Intrade Bears

Markets or candidates that have performed poorly recently (normally 7 days).

Probability of Victory
  7 Days Ago Today Change Change % Chart
Clinton to be Next President 9.8 6.1 -3.7 37.8 Chart
Clinton to be Dem Presidential Nominee 8.6 6.2 -2.4 27.9 Chart
Next President to be a Republican 39.0 38.3 -0.7 1.8 Chart
Obama to secure majority of Superdelegates 90.5 89.5 -1.0 1.1 Chart

 

Note: Occasionally we will include the Bear Markets even if they are not the top % losers.

 

Most Actively Traded

Most actively traded markets this week

Probability Volume Traded
  7 Days Ago Today Total Last 7 Days Chart
Clinton to be Dem Presidential Nominee 8.6 6.2 655,690 31,514 Chart
Clinton to be Next President 9.8 6.1 252,561 15,778 Chart
Obama to be Dem Presidential Nominee 90.0 91.9 459,627 9,436 Chart
Clinton to dropout of race by end of May 25.0 14.5 8,561 7,179 Chart
McCain to be Next President 37.7 38.0 196,404 7,044 Chart

 

Benchmark Markets

Democratic Nomination Market

Victory in last weeks North Carolina primary and a close runner-up finish to Hillary Clinton in the Indiana primary on the same night has locked tight Barack Obama’s grip on the market.

His current price of 91.9 is up 1.9 points from his value of 90.0 a week ago and up 16.1 points from his value of 75.8 two weeks ago. Heading into North Carolina and Indiana, Obama was already in a strong position, trading at 76.9 and holding a 55.6 point lead over Clinton. The outcome of these two contests immediately pushed his price out to 86.8, a gain of 9.9 points. 

Despite her win in Tuesdays West Virginia primary the market is giving Clinton little chance. Her current price of 6.2 is down 2.4 points from last weeks value of 8.6 and is a 16.3 point drop from her value of 22.5 two weeks ago. She now sits a distant 85.7 points behind Obama after trailing by 81.4 points a week ago and 53.3 points two weeks ago.

Next on the primary calendar is Kentucky and Oregon next Tuesday. Clinton is heavily favoured in the Kentucky market and Obama holds the advantage in the market for Oregon.

 

 

Next President Market

Barack Obama’s tightening grip on the Democratic nomination has strengthened his position in this market also. With a win in the North Carolina primary and a respectable second-place finish in Indiana last week, Obama has enjoyed some significant upward momentum.

Obama is currently trading at 58.7, which is a 4.0 point gain on last weeks price of 54.7 and a 16.5 point boost from his value of 42.2 two weeks ago. These gains have come largely at the expense of his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton. She has seen her value drop to 6.1 after trading at 9.8 last week and 16.0 a fortnight ago.

John McCain remains remarkably steady in value. His current price of 38.0 is up slightly from last weeks value of 37.7. But with Obama gaining momentum he has fallen further behind the market leader. He now trails Obama by 20.7 points, which is up from the 17.0 point gap between the two last week and up significantly from the 3.3 point margin separating them the week before. 

 

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