The Political Prediction Markets

April 30th, 2008. In This issue...

Bulls: Who’s Advancing?

Bears: Who’s Declining?

Most Active: Show me the $!

Benchmark Markets

Obama under pressure from McCain and Clinton following loss in Pennsylvania and comments by former preacher. 

This bulletin provides a snapshot of the hundreds of important political and related markets on the Intrade exchange.

It highlights the week’s biggest winners (McCain), biggest losers (Obama) and most actively traded markets.

In a world of data overload we aim to deliver succinct, accurate information to keep you up-to-date.

Democratic Nomination Market

Hillary Clinton has finally generated some significant momentum. After winning last weeks Pennsylvania primary by ten points, and with Barack Obama once again under pressure following more controversial remarks from his former preacher, Clinton enjoyed a nice boost in value. Her current price of 25.5 is up 8.5 points from last weeks value of 17.0 and is her highest price for nearly six weeks.

Obama was trading at 81.8 heading into Pennsylvania. This price dipped only slightly to 81.4 following his defeat. But inflammatory comments from Rev Jeremiah Wright have dented Obama’s value, despite the senator’s strong denunciation of his former preacher. In the last two days Obama’s price has slipped from 80.9 to it’s present value of 76.8.

Obama still holds a comfortable lead however. He sits 51.3 points ahead of Clinton, a margin significantly reduced from the 64.4 point gap between the two last week.

Next on the primary calendar are Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th. Clinton holds a 59.0 point lead in the Indiana market and Obama leads by 81.0 points in the market for the North Carolina contest, despite Clinton this week receiving the endorsement of North Carolina governor Mike Easley.

Next President Market

Barack Obama has come under severe pressure this week following his loss to Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania and after having to distance himself from controversial preacher Rev Jeremiah Wright. Obama still leads the market but his current price of 43.4 is a 3.8 point slide from last weeks value of 47.2.

John McCain this week launched details of a health plan and travelled to New Orleans, where he strongly criticised the Bush administrations response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. He continues to trade within a very steady range, with his current price of 40.9 a 1.9 point gain from last weeks value of 39.0.

Coupled with Obama’s drop in value McCain's modest gain has closed the gap between the two to just 2.5 points. This is down 5.7 points from the 8.2 point lead enjoyed by Obama last week.

Hillary Clinton has lost ground this week, despite a strong showing in the Democratic nomination market over the last seven days. Her current price of 13.0 is a modest drop of 0.6 points from last weeks value of 13.0.