The Political Prediction Markets

February 27th, 2008. In This issue...

Bulls: Who’s Advancing?

Bears: Who’s Declining?

Most Active: Show me the $!

Benchmark Markets

Texas and Ohio the last stand for Clinton. McCain all but confirmed as GOP nominee.

This bulletin provides a snapshot of the hundreds of important political and related markets on the Intrade exchange.

It highlights the week’s biggest winners, biggest losers and most actively traded markets.

In a world of data overload we aim to deliver succinct, accurate information to keep you up-to-date.

Democratic Nomination Market

After winning eleven straight primary contests Barack Obama has pulled away from Hillary Clinton and cemented his position as market leader and clear favourite for the Democratic nomination. He is currently trading at 83.5, which is up 4.5 points from last weeks value of 79.0.

Clinton struggled to keep pace with Obama as he racked up primary victories and lost further ground this week. Her current price of 16.5 is yet another record low for her and a drop of 2.1 points from last weeks value of 18.6. 

Clinton now trails Obama by the considerable margin of 66.9 points. This is up 6.5 points from the 60.4 point cushion enjoyed last week by Obama and the largest lead held by any candidate since the market opened.

Clinton must now win the Texas and Ohio primaries on March 4th to have any realistic chance of staying in the race. The market for Ohio currently has Clinton leading Obama by 10.0 points, while Obama is holding a 41.9 point lead over Clinton in the Texas market.

Republican Nomination Market

With no significant challengers remaining John McCain is all but confirmed as the Republican nominee. McCain assumed the position of market leader after Rudy Giuliani pulled out after a poor finish in the Florida primary, a position that was cemented further when Mitt Romney withdrew from the race after Super Tuesday.

McCain is currently trading at 94.7, which, although down 0.7 points from last weeks value of 95.4, leaves the Senator from Arizona in a basically unassailable position and without peer in the market.

Mike Huckabee has vowed to fight on but with a current price of 1.1 the market gives him little chance of success. Defeat in next weeks Texas and Ohio primaries will surely see the end of his efforts. 

McCain looks set to take both of these states however. He is currently trading at 97.5 in the market for Ohio and 93.1 in the Texas market. 

Next President Market

This market has remained steady over the past week, with only very minor price movements for the main candidates.

Barack Obama remains the market leader and leads by a healthy margin over nearest rival John McCain. Obama is currently trading at 55.4, which is up 0.4 points from last weeks value of 55.0. He now holds a 20.7 point lead over McCain after sitting 21.0 points ahead last week. McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee was able to make up a very small amount of ground with a 0.7 point gain this week - his current price of 34.7 is up from last weeks value of 34.0. 

Hillary Clinton, who remains unable to check Obama’s upward momentum in the Democratic nomination market, continued her downward slide this week. Her current price of 9.0 is an all-time low and a 3.0 slip from last weeks value of 12.0. This is a dramatic fall for a candidate who was a clear market leader just four weeks ago. A revival in this market depends on closing the gap on Obama for the Democratic nomination, which means winning Ohio and Texas on March 4th.