The Political Prediction Markets

January 16th, 2008. In This issue...

Bulls: Who’s Advancing?

Bears: Who’s Declining?

Most Active: Show me the $!

Benchmark Markets

Romney bounces back after win in Michigan. Clinton maintains lead over Obama.

This bulletin provides a snapshot of the hundreds of important political and related markets on the Intrade exchange.

It highlights the week’s biggest winners (Romney), biggest losers and most actively traded markets.

In a world of data overload we aim to deliver succinct, accurate information to keep you up-to-date.

Democratic Nomination Market

With the Michigan Democratic primary counting for nothing, this market saw no significant movement this week.

After regaining the position of market leader with her win in New Hampshire last week, Hillary Clinton has consolidated her position with a modest gain in value. Her current price of 58.6 is up 1.8 points from last weeks value of 56.8. 

Barack Obama also enjoyed a minor gain. He is currently trading at 39.3, which is up 0.3 points from last weeks value of 39.0. He now trails Clinton by 19.3 points after sitting 17.8 points behind last week.

John Edwards remains in the race, but has fallen well back after failing to make an impact in Iowa and New Hampshire. His current value of 1.5 is down 0.1 point from last weeks value of 1.6.

The next dates on the Democratic primary calendar are the Nevada caucus on Jan 19th and the South Carolina primary on Jan 26th. Currently the markets for both of these contests favour an Obama victory.

Republican Nomination Market

Mitt Romney’s win in last nights Michigan primary has pushed the former governor of Massachusetts back into contention for the Republican nomination. The victory saw Romney’s value jump to 21.1, a gain of 8.0 points from his value of 13.1 on the eve of the primary, and a gain of 9.9 points from last weeks value of 11.2. 

John McCain remains the market leader but suffered a sharp loss in value after being beaten by Romney last night. His current price of 33.9 is only down 0.7 points from last weeks value of 34.6, but is down 9.1 points from his value of 43.0 heading into the Michigan Primary.

Rudy Giuliani enjoyed a bounce in value despite finishing a distant sixth in Michigan. His current value of 21.3 is up 2.5 points from his value of 18.8 heading into the primary. This is down 7.9 points from his value of 29.2 seven days ago however.

It's a similar story for Mike Huckabee, who came in third in last nights primary. He is currently trading at 14.4, which is a bump of 0.9 points from his value of 13.5 leading into Michigan, but a loss of 1.6 from last weeks value of 16.0.

Next President Market

This market still heavily favours a Democratic victory on November.

Hillary Clinton remains the market leader, although her current price of 37.2 is a slight drop of 0.5 points from last weeks value of 37.7. Barack Obama also suffered a small slide in value, with his current price of 24.0 a 0.9 point slip from last weeks value of 24.9.

Following his victory in Michigan, Mitt Romney saw a nice bump in value. He is currently trading at 7.3, which is up 3.3 points from last weeks value of 4.0, and up 2.9 points from his value of 4.4 on the eve of the primary.

John McCain has slipped in value after finishing second to Romney. His current price of 14.7 is down 5.3 points from his value of 20.0 coming into Michigan, and down 1.4 points from his price of 16.1 a week ago.

Rudy Giuliani is currently trading at 8.3. This is up from his price of 6.5 before the Michigan primary, but down from his value of 11.4 seven days ago.