The Political Prediction Markets

January 9th, 2008. In This issue...

Bulls: Who’s Advancing?

Bears: Who’s Declining?

Most Active: Show me the $!

Benchmark Markets

Clinton retakes control after win in New Hampshire. McCain holds firm in Republican market.

This bulletin provides a snapshot of the hundreds of important political and related markets on the Intrade exchange.

It highlights the week’s biggest winners, biggest losers and most actively traded markets.

In a world of data overload we aim to deliver succinct, accurate information to keep you up-to-date.

Democratic Nomination Market

Hillary Clinton regained her position as market leader with a surprise victory in last nights New Hampshire primary – a position she had surrendered to Barack Obama after his triumph in Iowa five days earlier.

Clinton went into the Iowa caucus leading Obama by a comfortable 38.9 points, but Obama’s win and Clinton’s third-place finish cut this lead immediately to just 6.9 points. In the following days Obama swept past Clinton, trading as high as 76.0, a record high for any candidate. Clinton traded down as far as 22.0, a record low for her.

On the eve of the New Hampshire primary Obama closed at a price of 70.7, giving him a 43.7 point lead over Clinton, who closed at 27.0. Clinton’s unlikely victory turned the tables however. Her price has bounced back to 56.8 and Obama has fallen to 39.0. 

Clinton now holds a 17.8 point lead over Obama, which although far less than the 40.1 point cushion she enjoyed this time last week, is a 61.5 point turnaround from her pre-New Hampshire position.

Republican Nomination Market

Following the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, John McCain has swept to the front of the Republican field.

McCain was the big winner in Iowa, despite finishing fourth . Mike Huckabee’s victory in the caucus handed Mitt Romney a sharp drop in value – value that was picked up by both Huckabee and McCain. As Romney's value dropped from 23.8 to 14.3 immediately following the caucus, McCain jumped from 24.0 to 32.7, moving him past Rudy Giuliani into pole-position.

McCain maintained his value leading into New Hampshire, trading at 34.2 on the eve of the primary. Giuliani was trading at 28.4 and Huckabee carried his gains from Iowa into New Hampshire with a price of 17.5. Romney meanwhile had dropped to 11.7.

The market was not greatly impacted by McCain’s victory in New Hampshire however. His value edged up only 0.4 points to 34.6, while Giuliani gained 0.8 points to close at 29.2. Huckabee fell 1.5 points to 16.0 and Romney was down another 0.5 points to close at 11.2.

Next President Market

Hillary Clinton’s win over Barack Obama in last nights New Hampshire primary has restored her status as market leader. 

Obama had managed to erase the 27.0 point lead enjoyed by Clinton a week ago by winning the Iowa caucus. Obama carried this momentum into New Hampshire and on the eve of the primary was trading at 40.7, giving him a 22.2 point lead over Clinton, who was trading down at 18.5. 

But Clinton’s victory in New Hampshire saw her price jump back up to 37.7 - a gain of 19.2 points. Obama fell 15.8 points to 24.9 and he now sits 12.8 points behind Clinton.

John McCain is now the leading Republican in the market. He is currently trading at 16.1 after gaining 5.1 points after Iowa and 1.2 points after his win in New Hampshire last night. 

Rudy Giuliani, who is banking on a strong showing in the larger states, has remained steady. His current price of 11.4 is a minor 0.1 point gain from his value of 11.3 on the eve of the Iowa caucus.