The Political Prediction Markets

December 12th 2007. In This issue...

Bulls: Who’s Advancing?

Bears: Who’s Declining?

Most Active: Show me the $!

Benchmark Markets

Obama moves ahead of Giuliani and closes on Clinton.

This bulletin provides a snapshot of the hundreds of important political and related markets on the Intrade exchange.

It highlights the week’s biggest winners (Obama, Huckabee), biggest losers (Clinton, Romney) and most actively traded markets.

In a world of data overload we aim to deliver succinct, accurate information to keep you up-to-date.

Democratic Nomination Market

A surging Barack Obama enjoyed an impressive gain in value this week to put further pressure on the struggling Hillary Clinton. Obama’s current price of 32.0 is up 9.4 points from last weeks value of 22.6. This is the largest weekly gain recorded by any candidate this year and pushes Obama’s value to it's highest value since early August.

In contrast Clinton suffered the largest weekly fall in value by any candidate this year. She is currently trading at 59.9, which is down 7.7 points from last weeks value of 67.6 and down 12.9 points from her peak price of 72.8 three weeks ago.

Clinton’s lead over Obama now stands at 27.9, which although still comfortable is down 17.1 points from the 45.0 point gap separating the two last week, and down 29.1 points from the 57.0 point cushion she enjoyed three weeks ago.

John Edwards continues to campaign hard but this week saw a loss in value. He is currently trading at 4.7, which is down 1.1 points from last weeks value of 5.8. Al Gore, who continues to hover at the foot of the market, is currently trading at 2.8.

Republican Nomination Market

Mike Huckabee was again the main mover in this market this week. He is currently trading at 17.6, which is up 3.5 points from last weeks value of 14.1. 

Mitt Romney has managed to keep his nose ahead of the advancing Huckabee. Romney is currently trading at 18.7, which is a sharp drop of 5.0 points from last weeks value of 23.7. Romney has now suffered four consecutive weeks of declining value and is trading at his lowest value since late July.

Rudy Giuliani has extended his lead despite also suffering a slide in value. His current price of 41.1 is down 1.5 points from last weeks value of 42.6. But due to Romney’s drop in value his lead now stands at 22.4 points. This is up from the 18.9 point gap between the two last week and is the largest cushion enjoyed by Giuliani since the market first opened.

John McCain enjoyed a nice gain this week and is trading at his highest price since late June. His current price of 8.1 is up 1.7 points from last weeks value of 7.1.

Next President Market

Hillary Clinton remains the market leader this week, although a loss in value and a gain by the surging Obama has narrowed her lead. Clinton is currently trading at 40.2, which is down 4.9 points from last weeks value of 45.1 and her lowest price since mid-August.

Obama is currently trading at 18.5, which is his highest value since the beginning of August and a healthy 5.4 point jump from last weeks price of 13.1. He has now edged past Rudy Giuliani and sits 21.7 points behind Clinton, which is down from the 25.6 point cushion she enjoyed over Giuliani seven days ago.

Giuliani slipped 1.2 points this week, with his current price of 18.3 down from last weeks value of 19.5. He now sits 0.2 points behind Obama, the first time he has trailed the Senator from Illinois since late July.

Mitt Romney has continued his steady decline. His current price of 6.0 is down 1.8 points from last weeks value of 7.8 and is his lowest price since August of ’06. He has been overtaken by Mike Huckabee (not shown on chart), whose current price of 7.4 is up 2.2 points from last weeks value of 5.2.