The Political Prediction Markets

December 5th 2007. In This issue...

Bulls: Who’s Advancing?

Bears: Who’s Declining?

Most Active: Show me the $!

Benchmark Markets

Huckabee continues his charge. Obama maintains momentum as Clinton struggles. 

This bulletin provides a snapshot of the hundreds of important political and related markets on the Intrade exchange.

It highlights the week’s biggest winners (Obama, Huckabee), biggest losers (Romney, Clinton) and most actively traded markets.

In a world of data overload we aim to deliver succinct, accurate information to keep you up-to-date.

Democratic Nomination Market

Barack Obama continued his recent strong showing this week and has pegged back more ground on Hillary Clinton. His current price of 22.6 is a healthy 3.9 point gain from last weeks value of 18.7. This is the largest weekly gain for Obama since July and the first time he has traded above 20.0 since mid-August.

Despite this recent surge he still sits a distant 45.0 points behind Clinton. This margin is down 5.9 points from the 50.9 point gap between them last week, and down 12.0 points from the 57.0 point margin two weeks ago. With less than a month to the Iowa caucus has Obama left it too late? Or is he timing his run perfectly?

Clinton has continued her recent struggles with a third straight week of declining value. Her current price of 67.6 is down 2.0 points from last weeks value of 69.6.

John Edwards enjoyed a modest bump in value this week. He is currently trading at 5.8, which is up 0.7 points from last weeks value of 5.1. Al Gore sunk 1.6 points to his lowest ever value of 2.5.

Republican Nomination Market

Mike Huckabee continued his charge this week, helped by a strong showing in the last Republican debate and surging popularity in Iowa. His current price of 14.1 is an impressive 6.3 point gain on last weeks value of 7.8

Both Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani have lost value to Huckabee. Giuliani is currently trading at 42.6, which is down from last weeks value of 46.4. This 3.8 point slip is the largest weekly loss suffered by Giuliani since early April. 

Has Mitt Romney peaked? His value peaked at 31.4 on Nov 16th and has declined steadily since then. His current price of 23.7 is down 3.5 points from last weeks value of 27.2. Adding to Romney’s woes is Huckabee’s surging value. He currently sits 9.6 points ahead of Huckabee after enjoying a far more comfortable 19.4 point cushion last week.

John McCain is currently trading at 7.1, a very slight drop of 0.1 points from last weeks value of 7.2. He sits ahead of Fred Thompson and Ron Paul who are both currently trading at 5.1, after both trading at 5.5 last week.

Next President Market

Barack Obama has translated his recent upward swing in the nomination market into a healthy gain in this market also. Obama’s current price of 13.1 is a nice 3.8 point gain from last weeks value of 9.3. 
This is the biggest weekly gain enjoyed by Obama for over a year. He now sits 5.3 points ahead of Romney and trails Giuliani by 6.4 points.

Romney has slipped to his lowest weekly close since mid-July. His current price of 7.8 is down 1.8 points from last weeks value of 9.6, his third straight week of declining value.

Giuliani enjoyed a modest bump in value this week, despite suffering losses in the nomination market. His current price of 19.5 is up 1.0 point from last weeks value of 18.5. 

Hillary Clinton has slumped to her lowest weekly close in two months. She is currently trading at 45.1, a 2.8 point slide from last weeks price of 47.9 and a second straight week of declining value. She still holds a comfortable 25.6 point lead over nearest rival Giuliani however.