The Political Prediction Markets

November 28th 2007. In This issue...

Bulls: Who’s Advancing?

Bears: Who’s Declining?

Most Active: Show me the $!

Benchmark Markets

Giuliani pulls away from Romney. Obama closes the gap on Clinton.

This bulletin provides a snapshot of the hundreds of important political and related markets on the Intrade exchange.

It highlights the week’s biggest winners (Obama, Giuliani), biggest losers (Romney, Clinton) and most actively traded markets.

In a world of data overload we aim to deliver succinct, accurate information to keep you up-to-date.

Democratic Nomination Market

The market responded positively to the aggression shown by Barack Obama on the campaign trail this week. He was able to cut into Hillary Clinton’s lead with a nice gain. His current price of 18.7 is up 2.9 points from last weeks value of 15.8. He still sits 50.9 points behind Clinton but this figure is down 6.1 points from the 57.0 point gap between the two last week.

Clinton, also more aggressive this past week, suffered her largest weekly loss since early July. Her current price of 69.6 is down 3.2 points from last weeks value of 72.8, which was a high for any candidate since the market opened. The question now has to be asked, has Clinton peaked? Or is this just a hiccup?

John Edwards also saw a dip in form this week. He is currently trading at 5.1, which is down 0.5 points from last weeks value of 5.6.

The market appears to be giving up hope of an Al Gore candidacy. Since he was awarded the Nobel Prize on October 12th his price has slipped from 13.0 to todays value of 4.1.

Republican Nomination Market

Like the Democrats, the Republican front-runners stepped up their attacks on each other this week. But unlike the Democrats the market responded more positively to the market leader.

Rudy Giuliani, who campaigned hard in New Hampshire this week, has pushed his price out to a new high. His current price of 46.4 is a 1.9 point boost from last weeks value of 44.5.

Mitt Romney meanwhile suffered a second straight week of declining value. His current price of 27.2 is down 2.4 points from last weeks value of 29.6. He now sits 19.2 points behind Giuliani after trailing by 14.9 points last week and 11.8 points two weeks ago.

Mike Huckabee  continues to lead those bunched at the other end of the market, although he did lose value this week. His current price of 7.8 is down 0.5 points from last weeks value of 8.3. John McCain is currently trading at 7.2 after picking up 1.0 point this week, while Fred Thompson slipped to 0.2 points down to 5.5. Ron Paul is also trading at 5.5 this week after slipping 0.6 points from last weeks price of 6.1.

Next President Market

This market followed the trends set in the respective nomination markets this week. 

Hillary Clinton suffered a loss and saw her nearest rival gain ground. Her current price of 47.9 is down 1.6 points from last weeks value of 49.5, which was a high for any candidate. 

Rudy Giuliani closed the gap on Clinton with a 1.3 point gain in value. He is currently trading at 18.5, which is up from last weeks value of 17.2 and is his highest price since early September. He still trails Clinton by 29.4 points but this gap has narrowed from the 32.3 cushion enjoyed by Clinton last week.

Mitt Romney slipped back this week with a loss. His current price of 9.6 is down 0.7 points from last weeks value of 10.3.

Barack Obama maintained his recent upward momentum. He is currently trading at 9.3, which is a 1.0 point gain from last weeks value of 8.3. This is the fourth consecutive week Obama has added value and he now sits only 0.3 points behind Romney, who he has trailed since mid-September.