The Political Prediction Markets

November 14th 2007. In This issue...

Bulls: Who’s Advancing?

Bears: Who’s Declining?

Most Active: Show me the $!

Benchmark Markets

Romney and Obama show strength, but the Clinton and Giuliani hold firm.

This bulletin provides a snapshot of the hundreds of important political and related markets on the Intrade exchange.

It highlights the week’s biggest winners (Romney, Obama), biggest losers (Thompson) and most actively traded markets.

In a world of data overload we aim to deliver succinct, accurate information to keep you up-to-date.

Democratic Nomination Market

Barack Obama cut 4.5 points off Hillary Clinton’s lead this week with a nice gain in value. His current price of 16.7 is up 3.5 points from last weeks value of 13.2. This is the largest gain recorded by Obama since he jumped 4.4 points in early June. 

Clinton’s lead still stands at a sizable 53.5 points however. Clinton, who continues to endure heavy criticism from both her Democratic and Republican rivals, dropped 1.0 point in value this week, with her current price of 70.2 down from the value of 71.2 she was trading at seven days ago. 

John Edwards, who recently declined to say if he would endorse Clinton if she won the nomination, enjoyed his fourth week without a loss. He is currently trading at 5.5, which is up 0.4 points from last weeks value of 5.1 and is his highest price in over a month.

Al Gore continues to lose value. His current price of 4.8 is down 1.3 points from last weeks value of 6.1, and down 3.5 points from his value of 8.3 two weeks ago. 

Republican Nomination Market

Mitt Romney pushed his price out to a new high this week and further closed the gap on market leader Rudy Giuliani. Romney is currently trading at 30.8, which is up 3.2 points from last weeks value of 27.6.

Giuliani also enjoyed some upward movement this week. His current price of 42.6 is a 1.1 point gain from last weeks value of 41.5. Giuliani’s lead over Romney now sits at 11.8 points, down from the 13.9 point gap between the two last week. Romney has shaved 8.3 points from Giuliani’s lead in the past three weeks.

Fred Thompson saw his value continue to slide. His current price of 6.5 points is a 0.9 point drop from last weeks value of 7.4. 

John McCain remains unchanged this week. His current price of 7.1 is the same price he was trading at seven days ago.

Ron Paul (not shown on chart) slipped behind McCain after suffering a 1.8 point slide this week. His current price of 6.9 is down from last weeks value of 8.7.

Next President Market

Mitt Romney and Barack Obama enjoyed nice gains this week as the two market leaders both saw a slip in value.

Hillary Clinton maintains her comfortable position as market leader despite this dip in value. Her current price of 45.7 is down 1.1 points from last weeks value of 46.8. Clinton has now lost value for three consecutive weeks, although these losses have been modest.

Rudy Giuliani once again could not take advantage of Clinton's weakness and suffered a minor loss of his own. His current price of 16.5 is down 0.4 points from last weeks value of 16.9. Like Clinton, this is a third straight week of losses. Giuliani now sits 29.2 points behind Clinton, which is down slightly from the 29.9 point gap between the two last week.

Romney is currently trading at 11.0, which is his highest price since peaking at 12.0 back in Oct '06. This current price is a 1.3 point boost from last weeks value of 9.7.

Obama enjoyed a second straight week of gains. His current price of 7.8 is up 1.3 points from last weeks value of 6.5 and is the highest he has traded since the beginning of October.