The Political Prediction Markets

November 7th 2007. In This issue...

Bulls: Who’s Advancing?

Bears: Who’s Declining?

Most Active: Show me the $!

Benchmark Markets

No change at the top as Clinton and Giuliani rumble on. Paul jumps ahead of McCain and Thompson.

This bulletin provides a snapshot of the hundreds of important political and related markets on the Intrade exchange.

It highlights the week’s biggest winners (Romney, Paul),  biggest losers (Thompson, Gore) and most actively traded markets.

In a world of data overload we aim to deliver succinct, accurate information to keep you up-to-date.

Democratic Nomination Market

Al Gore was the most significant mover in this market over the past seven days. His current price of 6.1 is down 2.2 points from last weeks value of 8.3. This follows a healthy 2.8 point gain in value last week.

Barack Obama and John Edwards both benefited from Gore’s retreat with gains in value. Obama’s current price of 13.2 is a modest bump of 0.7 points from last week’s value of 12.5. Although the gains have been small this is the third straight week of increasing value for Obama. 

Edwards, who continues to be strong in his criticism of Hillary Clinton, is currently trading at 5.1, which is up 1.1 points from last week value of 4.0. The market still rates him less of a chance for the nomination than Gore however. 

Hillary Clinton remains steady out in front. Her current price of 71.2 is up 0.2 points from last weeks value of 71.0. She leads nearest rival Obama by 58.0 points, which is down 0.5 points from the 58.5 point cushion she enjoyed last week.

Republican Nomination Market

Market leader Rudy Giuliani enjoyed a modest gain in value this week. His current price of 41.5 is up 0.4 points from last weeks price of 41.1. 

Mitt Romney remains Giuliani’s nearest challenger for the nomination. His current price of 27.6 is a 0.6 gain from last weeks value of 27.0. Romney now trails Giuliani by 13.9 points, which is down very slightly on the 14.1 point gap between them last week.

Fred Thompson has continued his downward slide. His current price of 7.4 is a drop of 2.5 points from last weeks value of 9.9.  In the last four weeks his value has dropped 14.6 points  – a 66.4% drop in value.

Ron Paul (not shown on chart) enjoyed a nice gain this week, which has pushed him ahead of Thompson and John McCain. The congressman from Texas is currently trading at 8.7, which is up 1.8 points from last weeks value of 6.9.

John McCain remained steady this week. His current price of 7.1 is unchanged from seven days ago.

Next President Market

This week saw very settled trading in this market, with three of the four main candidates moving no more than 0.2 points.

Mitt Romney was the exception with a nice gain. His current price of 9.7 is up 1.2 points from last weeks value of 8.5 and is his highest price since peaking at 10.2 back in August ’07.

Hillary Clinton remains the market leader, a position she has held since the beginning of 2007. She did suffer a very slight loss in value however, with her current price of 46.8 down 0.2 points from last weeks value of 47.0.

Rudy Giuliani spends another week as Clinton’s nearest rival, although he remains unable to make up significant ground on the Democratic front runner. Giuliani is currently trading at 16.9, which is unchanged from last week. He sits 29.9 points behind Clinton after trailing by 30.1 points seven days ago.

Barack Obama also saw minimal change to his price this week. His current value of 6.5 is up 0.1 points from last weeks value of 6.4.