The Political Prediction Markets

October 24th 2007. In This issue...

Bulls: Who’s Advancing?

Bears: Who’s Declining?

Most Active: Show me the $!

Benchmark Markets

Clinton and Giuliani make further gains as Thompson continues downward spiral. Gore's value slashed as he rules himself out.

This bulletin provides a snapshot of the hundreds of important political and related markets on the Intrade exchange.

It highlights the week’s biggest winners (Clinton, Giuliani),  biggest losers (Gore, Thompson) and most actively traded markets.

In a world of data overload we aim to deliver succinct, accurate information to keep you up-to-date.

Democratic Nomination Market

Hillary Clinton keeps pushing her value to record highs. The former First Lady increased her valuet by another 2.0 points this week to further solidify her grip on the market. Her current price is up to 71.3, up from her value of 69.3 seven days ago.

As expected Al Gore suffered a sharp loss in value. After pocketing his Nobel Peace Prize last week Gore declared on Norwegian radio he had no intention of running. As a result his price dropped to 5.5 after trading at 11.1 the week before.

Barack Obama saw a small bump in value in the wake of Gore’s losses. His current price of 12.0 is up 0.8 points from last weeks value of 11.2. Obama now trails Clinton by 59.3 points after sitting 58.1 points behind a week ago. John Edwards also enjoyed a modest gain this. His current price of 4.0 is up 0.5 points from last weeks value of 3.5.

At present the market may point to Hillary Clinton winning the nomination with ease. But on the morning of the New Hampshire primary in 2004 Howard Dean was the market leader trading at 60.5 and John Kerry was trading at only 3.0. A week, as they say, is a long time in politics.

Republican Nomination Market

Rudy Giuliani eased further ahead of his Republican rivals this week with a nice gain in value. His current price of 44.4 is up 4.0 points from his value of 40.4 seven days ago. He now sits 20.1 points ahead of nearest rival Mitt Romney after leading by 14.6 points last week.

Fred Thompson, who continues to draw criticism for his lacklustre campaigning, suffered considerable losses again this week. His current price of 11.6 is a 4.4 point drop from last weeks value of 16.0 and follows a loss of 6.0 points the week before.

Mitt Romney was unable to benefit from Thompson’s crash and lost further ground on Giuliani with a loss of his own. He is currently trading at 24.3, which is down 1.5 points from last weeks value of 25.8.

John McCain enjoyed a modest gain in value this week after a solid showing in the latest Republican rebate. His current price of 7.3 is up 0.6 points from last weeks value of 6.7 and is the highest he has traded since June ’07.

Next President Market

Little has changed in this market over the past seven days trading. Hillary Clinton enjoyed another week of gains and increased her lead over the rest of the field. Her current price of 48.0 is a 2.5 point boost from last weeks value of 45.5. 

Rudy Giuliani also enjoyed a healthy gain in value this week but remains well behind the market leader. He is currently trading at 17.7, which is up 2.1 points from last weeks price of 17.7. 

Clinton now holds a very comfortable 30.3 point lead over Giuliani. This is up marginally from the 29.9 point gap that separated the two last week and is the third consecutive week Clinton has managed to stretch her lead.

Barack Obama remained steady this week. His current price of 7.0 is a small bump of 0.1 on last weeks value of 6.9. This ends a five-week period of declining value for the Senator from Illinois.

Fred Thompson continues to see his value dwindle. His current price of 4.7 is down 1.6 points from last weeks value of 6.3 and is the lowest price he has traded since being added to the market in April ’07.