The Political Prediction Markets

September 19th 2007. In This issue...

Bulls: Who’s Advancing?

Bears: Who’s Declining?

Most Active: Show me the $!

Benchmark Markets

Still no challenge to Clinton as Giuliani and Obama fade further. Thompson edges past Romney.

This bulletin provides a snapshot of the hundreds of important political and related markets on the Intrade exchange.

It highlights the week’s biggest winners, biggest losers  and most actively traded markets.

In a world of data overload we aim to deliver succinct, accurate information to keep you up-to-date.

Democratic Nomination Market

Hillary Clinton’s status as undisputed market leader remains intact for another week as her rivals for the Democratic nomination failed once again to mount any sort of challenge. 

Clinton did suffer a small decline in value this week however, her first in nine weeks. Her current price of 67.8 is a 0.8 point slip from last week’s value of 68.6. 

Closest rival Barack Obama also lost value this week. His current price of 16.0 is a 0.7 point drop from last week’s value of 16.7. He is currently trading at his lowest price since Nov ’06 and has gone ten weeks without a gain in value. 

Clinton’s lead over Obama now sits at 51.8 points, which is down 0.1 points from the 51.9 point cushion she enjoyed last week. 

Al Gore remains unchanged this week with a price of 7.2. John Edwards sits just behind him, trading at 7.0. This is a 0.1 point slide from last week’s price of 7.1.

Republican Nomination Market

Rudy Giuliani remains at the head of the field despite suffering a second consecutive week of declining value. His current price of 34.9 is a 1.8 point drop from last week’s value of 36.7, and a 3.2 point slide from his value of 38.1 two weeks ago.

Fred Thompson, who is now in his second week as an official candidate, has leapfrogged Mitt Romney as Giuliani’s nearest rival. Thompson is currently trading at 23.8, which is up 1.4 points from last week’s value of 22.4. 

Romney, meanwhile, suffered a decline in value. His current price of 23.3 is a 1.2 point slip from last week’s value of 24.5.

These movements have Giuliani sitting 11.1 points ahead of Thompson. This is 1.1 points less than the 12.2 point lead he enjoyed last week over then nearest rival Romney.

John McCain remains in the distance but did enjoy a second straight week of gains. His current price of 5.2 is a 0.6 point boost from last week’s value of 4.6.

Next President Market

Hillary Clinton has remained steady in pole position again this week, with none of her rivals able to gain any ground. She is currently trading at 43.2, which is a 0.3 point drop from last week’s value of 43.5. This slight dip in form ends a run of ten consecutive weeks without a loss in value.

Rudy Giuliani slipped further behind Clinton with a loss of his own. His current price of 16.4 is a 1.8 point decline from last week’s value of 18.2. 

The Republican front-runner now sits 26.8 points behind Clinton and has gone seven straight weeks without a gain in value.

Fred Thompson moved into third place this week with his first gain in value for seven weeks. He is currently trading at 8.9, which is up 0.4 points from last week’s price of 8.5. 

Barack Obama, who ten weeks ago sat in second place just 5.5 points behind Clinton, has slipped behind Thompson. His current price of 8.7 is a 0.9 point slide from last week’s value of 9.6