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The Political Prediction Markets
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June 28th 2007. In This issue...
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Rudy bounces back as Clinton, Obama and Thompson remain steady.
This bulletin provides a snapshot of the hundreds of important political and related markets on the Intrade exchange.
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The Intrade Bulls
Markets or candidates that have performed well recently (normally 7 days).
| Probability of Victory | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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7 Days Ago |
Today |
Change | Change % | Chart | |
| Giuliani to be Rep. Presidential Nominee |
29.4% |
32.5% |
3.1 | 10.5% | Chart |
| Giuliani to be Next President | 14.0% | 15.0% | 1.0 | 7.1% | Chart |
| Romney to be Next President | 9.2% | 9.7% | 0.5 | 5.4% | Chart |
| Obama to be Dem. Presidential Nominee | 29.8% | 30.5% | 0.7 | 2.4% | Chart |
| F. Thompson to be Rep. Presidential Nominee | 30.5% | 31.2% | 0.7 | 2.3% | Chart |
Note: Occasionally we will include Bull Markets even if they are not the top % gainers.
The Intrade Bears
Markets or candidates that have performed poorly recently (normally 7 days).
| Probability of Victory | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Days Ago | Today | Change | Change % | Chart | |
| Hagel to be Rep. Presidential Nominee | 0.8% | 0.4% | -0.4 | -50.0% | Chart |
| Huckabee to be Rep. Presidential Nominee | 1.2% | 0.8% | -0.1 | -33.3% | Chart |
| Gore to be Dem. Presidential Nominee | 10.6% | 8.7% | -1.9 | -17.9% | Chart |
| McCain to be Next President | 5.0% | 4.7% | -0.3 | -6.0% | Chart |
Note: Occasionally we will include the Bear Markets even if they are not the top % losers.
Most Actively Traded
Most actively traded markets this week
| Probability | Volume Traded | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Days Ago | Today | Total | Last 7 Days | Chart | |
| McCain to be Rep. Presidential Nominee | 8.5% | 8.5% | 104,274 | 10,527 | Chart |
| Clinton to be Next President | 33.2% | 32.5% | 38,968 | 4,575 | Chart |
| Clinton to be Dem. Presidential Nominee | 49.5% | 49.3% | 179,312 | 4,107 | Chart |
| Gore to be Dem. Presidential Nominee | 10.6% | 8.7% | 201,630 | 3,751 | Chart |
| Obama to be Dem. Presidential Nominee | 29.8% | 30.5% | 138,009 | 2,225 | Chart |
Benchmark Markets
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Democratic Nomination Market
Barack Obama has seen a slight increase in value from 29.8 a fortnight ago to 30.5 today. Meanwhile Hillary Clinton maintains her position as favorite for the nomination with a price of 49.5. This is up slightly from 49.3 seven days ago and 49.2 two weeks ago.
Clinton's lead over Obama has remained steady over the past two weeks. It currently stands at 19.0 points, down slightly from 19.5 a week ago and 19.4 a fortnight ago.
Has the bell tolled for Al Gore? His price has dropped from 10.6 to 8.7 over the past seven days on fairly heavy trading. This represents a 17.9% drop in value. His reluctance to declare his intentions perhaps has traders looking for value elsewhere.
Meanwhile John Edwards remains steady in value but some distance from the leaders. His current price of 5.3 is a very slight increase from last weeks value of 5.2.
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Republican Nomination Market
Rudy Giuliani has been the main mover in this market over the past two weeks. A fortnight ago Giuliani was valued at 26.4 and trailed Fred Thompson by 3.1 points. His price has since jumped 23.1% to today's value of 32.5 and he now shades Thompson by 1.3 points.
Although Thompson has slipped behind Giuliani as the Republican front runner his price has shown upward movement over the last fourteen days. His is currently trading at 31.2 which is up from 30.5 seven days ago and 29.5 two weeks ago.
The improved fortunes of Giuliani and Thompson come at the continuing expense of John McCain. His value has dropped from 13.9 a fortnight ago to 8.5 today.
Mitt Romney remains Mr. Steady with a current value of 22.5. This is only a slight change from his value of 22.0 seven days ago and 21.5 two weeks ago. |
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Next President Market
Hillary Clinton still remains solid favorite to be the next President of the United States. Her current value of 33.2 is down slightly from 33.6 two weeks ago but up from 32.5 seven days ago.
Barack Obama remains steady as second favorite with a current price of 17.7. This a slight decline in value from 18.0 seven days ago and 18.3 a fortnight ago.
The still undeclared Fred Thompson has also seen a very slight drop in value. His current price of 16.0 is down fractionally from 16.1 a week ago and 16.3 a fortnight ago.
Once again the big mover has been Rudy Giluliani. He is now snapping at the heals of Thompson and Obama after a jump in value from 11.6 fourteen days ago to a price of 15.0 today.
Dispite the gains made by Giuliani the market, with Clinton and Obama occupying the top two spots, is currently pointing to a Democratic administration in 2008. |
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